“Now OpenAI and Anthropic represent 50% or more of hyperscaler remaining performance obligations, or around $748 billion.”
Our reading:
OpenAI and Anthropic account for at least 50% (about $748B) of hyperscaler remaining performance obligations.
Assessment: Unresolved
What happened
Was it true for the period described?
Outcome: Unresolved
We checked, and the evidence so far doesn’t settle it.
Evidence up to . Checked .
Why
The contract reads 'hyperscalers' as Microsoft, Google Cloud and AWS. At 2026-03-31 their reported backlogs were $627B (e1), $462B (e5) and $364B (e4). That is about $1.45 trillion in total, so half is about $727B. Only Microsoft has disclosed a lab share: 45% of its commercial RPO was tied to OpenAI at 2025-12-31 (e2). That date is before the target period, and Microsoft's 2026-03-31 remarks give no share (e1). A press report says Anthropic committed about $200B to Google Cloud over five years, which it compares to more than 40% of Google's backlog. Neither company disclosed a dollar figure (e3). The same report says OpenAI raised its AWS commitment by $100B and that Anthropic has a separate $100B AWS deal (e4). Its estimate that the two labs make up 'roughly half' covers a $2 trillion base that includes Oracle, so it does not measure the three-company set (e4). No cited source gives the combined OpenAI and Anthropic amount booked in these three backlogs. The evidence cannot confirm or rule out either the 50% share or the $748B figure.
Caveats
- Google and Amazon do not disclose how much of their backlog comes from OpenAI or Anthropic.
- Microsoft's OpenAI share is known only as of 2025-12-31, before the target period.
- Lab amounts at Google and AWS come from press reports of headline deal values, not from booked RPO.
- The cited evidence does not show when the AWS lab deals were signed relative to the 2026-03-31 quarter end.
- No cited evidence gives Anthropic's commitment to Microsoft.
- Microsoft's 10-Q could not be read directly.
Evidence (5 items)
Context only: Microsoft,
RPO increased to $627 billion and was up 99% year-over-year with a weighted average duration of approximately two and a half years when including OpenAI.
Why it matters: Gives Microsoft's part of the combined base ($627 billion), but not OpenAI's exact share at this date.
- Publisher
- Microsoft
- Kind of source
- Company disclosure: the company describing itself, not an independent finding, unaudited
- Measures
- Microsoft, Commercial remaining performance obligation, USD USD billions, company reported, ? to 2026-03-31
- About events on
- Published
Context only: CNBC,
Microsoft said 45% of commercial remaining performance obligation is tied to OpenAI, with the remainder growing 28%.
Why it matters: At the end of 2025, about $281 billion of Microsoft's $625 billion RPO was tied to OpenAI. This is the only company-disclosed lab share, and it predates the target period.
- Publisher
- CNBC
- Kind of source
- News report
- Measures
- Microsoft, Share of commercial RPO tied to OpenAI, USD percent, company reported, ? to 2025-12-31
- About events on
- Published
Context only: The Decoder (citing The Information),
This single deal accounts for more than 40 percent of Google's total "revenue backlog" most recently disclosed to investors, according to The Information.
Why it matters: A press report puts Anthropic's Google commitment at about $200 billion, over 40% of Google Cloud's backlog. Neither company confirmed this.
- Where
- paragraph 3
- Publisher
- The Decoder (citing The Information)
- Kind of source
- News report
- Measures
- Alphabet (Google Cloud), Anthropic share of Google Cloud backlog, USD percent, estimate, ? to 2026-03-31
- About events on
- Published
Context only: The Decoder (citing The Information),
Together with OpenAI, Anthropic is responsible for roughly half of the $2 trillion in combined backlog at Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Oracle, the report says. At AWS, that figure jumped 49 percent in the first quarter to $364 billion.
Why it matters: The closest outside estimate says roughly half, but its base includes Oracle (about $2 trillion), so it does not measure the three-company set the claim describes. It also gives AWS's $364 billion backlog and the two $100 billion lab deals there.
- Publisher
- The Decoder (citing The Information)
- Kind of source
- News report
- Measures
- Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle, OpenAI and Anthropic share of combined cloud backlog, USD percent, estimate, ? to 2026-03-31
- About events on
- Published
Context only: TIKR,
At the end of Q1 2026, Google Cloud’s backlog stood at $462 billion, up from $240 billion at the end of Q4 2025
Why it matters: Gives Google's part of the combined base ($462 billion), citing Alphabet's 10-Q.
- Publisher
- TIKR
- Kind of source
- Secondary summary, unaudited
- Measures
- Alphabet (Google Cloud), Google Cloud backlog, USD USD billions, company reported, ? to 2026-03-31
- About events on
- Published
How we judged it
- Kind of claim
- Observation
- Deadline
- None given. We don’t add one.
Where we had to interpret
- 'Hyperscalers' means Microsoft, Google (Alphabet's Google Cloud) and Amazon (AWS). The surrounding text treats these three as the hyperscalers and discusses Oracle separately. A $748 billion total that is half or more also only fits these three: if Oracle is added, half the base is about $1 trillion.
- 'Now' (post dated 2026-06-30) is read as the latest reported quarter (ended 2026-03-31), plus large compute deals announced between then and the post date.
- 'Remaining performance obligations' is read to cover each company's reported contracted backlog: Microsoft's commercial RPO, Google Cloud's backlog and AWS's backlog.
- Supported if credible evidence shows contracts with OpenAI and Anthropic make up at least about half of the three companies' combined backlog, with a dollar total near $748 billion. Contradicted if evidence shows a share clearly below half or a dollar total far from $748 billion.
Right if: Disclosures or credible reports show OpenAI and Anthropic contracts make up 50% or more of combined Microsoft, Google Cloud and AWS backlog in the first half of 2026, roughly $700-800 billion.
Wrong if: Disclosures or credible reports show OpenAI and Anthropic contracts make up clearly less than half of the three companies' combined backlog (for example under about 45%), or a dollar total far from $748 billion.
We wrote this test after the outcome was known.
What would settle it
Disclosures by Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon, or credible reporting, of the dollar amounts of OpenAI and Anthropic contracts included in their backlogs around 2026-03-31 to 2026-06-30. These would show whether the combined share across the three is at or above about 50% and whether the total is near $748B.
We found 33 claims in this post. See them all.
Full record
Source and dates
Where's Your Ed At, The AI Industry Is Losing, paragraph 31.
- Said
- We read the source
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence up to
- Checked
We read this wording on 2026-10-28. The post may have been edited after 2026-06-30.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the posts we read.
: Where's Your Ed At, The AI Industry Is Losing
Now OpenAI and Anthropic represent 50% or more of hyperscaler remaining performance obligations, or around $748 billion.
- Where
- paragraph 31
- Published
- 2026-06-30
- We read it
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Versions
- Current: Unresolved. Evidence up to 2026-10-28.
What happened to this record
PublishedBy us
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
Held backBy us
A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.