“Outside of OpenAI and Anthropic, there appears to be less than $30 billion dollars of non-AI lab compute demand across Amazon, Google and Microsoft. I need to also be clear that this is almost certainly an overestimate, because it includes revenues from Azure Foundry, Amazon Bedrock, and Google Vertex, which includes both compute and API spend on Anthropic and OpenAI’s models.”
Our reading:
Outside OpenAI and Anthropic, there appears to be less than $30 billion of non-AI-lab compute demand across Amazon, Google and Microsoft, and this is almost certainly an overestimate because it includes Foundry, Bedrock and Vertex revenues that cover compute and API spend on Anthropic and OpenAI's models.
Assessment: Can’t be checked
What happened
Not graded on evidence
Outcome: Can’t be checked
An opinion, a recommendation, or too vague to test. Listed, not scored.
Evidence up to . Checked .
Why
This is a hedged estimate ('there appears to be') that he built from analyst notes that are not public. It has no stated period and no definition of 'compute demand'. Amazon, Google and Microsoft do not report AI compute revenue by customer. Even Microsoft's total AI revenue for FY2026 had to be estimated by Bloomberg (e1), and UBS's Google figure measures total cloud revenue (e2). No public measure exists to test the under-$30B figure or the 'almost certainly an overestimate' qualifier. Scoring it as a firm fact would ignore his hedge.
Caveats
- If the analyst models were published, the figure might become checkable.
Evidence (2 items)
Claims like this aren’t scored, so there is no evidence to show.
How we judged it
- Kind of claim
- Observation
- Deadline
- None given. We don’t add one.
Conditions
- there appears to be (their words)
- almost certainly an overestimate (their words)
Where we had to interpret
- The figure is his own hedged synthesis ('there appears to be') of analyst estimates that are not public. He gives no period or definition of 'compute demand'.
- None of the three companies discloses AI revenue split by customer. No public measure exists to test the '<$30B' figure or the 'overestimate' qualifier.
- Scoring the number as a firm fact would ignore his hedge, so the claim is treated as not adjudicable.
We don’t grade claims like this. We only check the quote and who said it.
What would settle it
Company disclosures of AI revenue split between the two labs and all other customers, or published analyst models with a stated period and definitions.
We found 30 claims in this post. See them all.
Full record
Source and dates
Where's Your Ed At, The AI Demand Bubble, paragraph 96.
- Said
- We read the source
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence up to
- Checked
We read this wording on 2026-10-28. The post may have been edited after 2026-08-04.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the posts we read.
: Where's Your Ed At, The AI Demand Bubble
Outside of OpenAI and Anthropic, there appears to be less than $30 billion dollars of non-AI lab compute demand across Amazon, Google and Microsoft. I need to also be clear that this is almost certainly an overestimate, because it includes revenues from Azure Foundry, Amazon Bedrock, and Google Vertex, which includes both compute and API spend on Anthropic and OpenAI’s models.
- Where
- paragraph 96
- Published
- 2026-08-04
- We read it
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Versions
- Current: Can’t be checked. Evidence up to 2026-10-28.
What happened to this record
PublishedBy us
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
Held backBy us
A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.