“To hit a revenue target of $11.6 billion in 2025, OpenAI would need to increase revenue from ChatGPT customers by 310%.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
OpenAI would need to grow ChatGPT revenue by 310% to reach $11.6B in 2025.
Assessment: Contradicted Evidence as of
Where and when Ed Zitron wrote it
Where's Your Ed At, OpenAI Is A Bad Business, paragraph 78.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment wyea-oai-business-7d46c5-a2
We recorded 46 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2024-10-02. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Observation
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- “in 2025”
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- No horizon (the release’s reference date)
Conditions
- to hit $11.6 billion in 2025 (qualifier, stated by the speaker)
From the speaker
- revenue target of $11.6 billion in 2025
- increase revenue from ChatGPT customers by 310%
- $225 million a month — $2.7 billion a year
Our interpretation
- Assess the arithmetic asserted in September 2024, not whether OpenAI subsequently achieved its revenue target.
- The ordinary meaning of an increase by 310% is a final amount equal to 410% of the starting amount.
- Treat $2.7 billion as the stipulated annualized ChatGPT baseline. The underlying annual revenue forecast does not independently establish that OpenAI was collecting $225 million every month.
- Use an unchanged revenue mix as a counterexample to the claimed necessity, not as a prediction: ChatGPT can retain its stated share while both revenue streams grow proportionately.
- The target period covers the September financial estimates used in the post.
Counts as supported if: The stipulated baseline, total target and revenue assumptions require ChatGPT revenue to increase approximately 310%, using the ordinary definition of percentage increase.
Counts as contradicted if: Correct arithmetic establishes a materially different required increase under the stated revenue mix, or a scenario consistent with that mix reaches the total target with less than 310% ChatGPT growth.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Was it true for the period described?
Outcome: Contradicted
The dated evidence goes against what the claim committed to, under the criteria frozen before grading.
Scored on a plain reading. The speaker named no measure for this claim, so it was judged on the reading an informed reader would take, stated below under our interpretation. Both reviews had to find that reading fair.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
Using the stipulated $2.7 billion annualized ChatGPT baseline, an unchanged revenue mix provides a counterexample: preserving the September 2024 forecast share of $2.7 billion out of $3.7 billion gives $8.465 billion in ChatGPT revenue toward the $11.6 billion 2025 target [e1, e2, e3]. Assuming those rates hold throughout 2025, the required increase is 213.5%, with the final amount equal to 313.5% of the baseline [e3]. This scenario reaches the total target with less than 310% ChatGPT growth, contradicting the claimed necessity [e3].
Limitations
- The reported $2.7 billion figure was a 2024 annual forecast; it does not verify a $225 million monthly run rate [e1].
- The calculation assumes an unchanged revenue mix and a full year at the resulting rates. It does not establish actual 2025 revenue or the feasibility of sustaining those rates [e3].
- The financial premises come from reporting rather than directly available private financial documents [e1, e2, e3].
Evidence (3 items)
Goes against the claim: CNBC,
Revenue is expected to jump to $11.6 billion next year
Why it matters here: The derived counterexample reaches the target with a 213.5% increase in the stipulated ChatGPT baseline, assuming the stated mix and a full year at the resulting rate. This is a calculation from reported premises, not a measured revenue outcome.
- Publisher
- CNBC
- Kind of source
- News report
- Measures
- OpenAI, Required percentage increase in annualized ChatGPT subscription revenue from the stipulated baseline, USD percent, estimate, 2024-09 to 2025-12
- Arithmetic
- ChatGPT target = 11.6 × (2.7 / 3.7) = 8.464864865 billion. Increase = (8.464864865 / 2.7 - 1) × 100 = 213.5135135%. Final level as a percentage of baseline = 313.5135135%. (inputs: e1: $2.7 billion projected ChatGPT revenue; also the numerical annualized baseline stipulated by the claim.; e2: $3.7 billion projected total revenue.; e3: $11.6 billion total revenue target.; Evaluator scenario: retain the 2.7/3.7 ChatGPT revenue share and sustain the resulting annualized rates throughout 2025.; Revenue rounded to $8.465 billion; percentages to one decimal place.)
- Describes events of
- Public from
Context only: The Decoder,
OpenAI expects ChatGPT to bring in $2.7 billion this year
Why it matters here: This identifies the source figure as a forecast of annual revenue. It does not verify the monthly run rate asserted in the post.
- Publisher
- The Decoder
- Kind of source
- Secondary summary
- Measures
- OpenAI, Projected annual ChatGPT revenue, USD billions, estimate, 2024-01-01 to 2024-12-31
- Describes events of
- Public from
Context only: Fortune,
the company expects revenue of $3.7 billion in 2024.
Why it matters here: Together with e1, this supplies the revenue mix used in the arithmetic counterexample. It is a forecast, not a report of completed annual sales.
- Publisher
- Fortune
- Kind of source
- News report
- Measures
- OpenAI, Projected total annual revenue, USD billions, estimate, 2024-01-01 to 2024-12-31
- Describes events of
- Public from
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Where's Your Ed At, OpenAI Is A Bad Business
To hit a revenue target of $11.6 billion in 2025, OpenAI would need to increase revenue from ChatGPT customers by 310%.
- Where
- paragraph 78
- Published
- 2024-10-02
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment wyea-oai-business-7d46c5-a2: Current. Outcome: Contradicted. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.