“and he still can’t get past any of these very obvious problems, partly because he isn’t technical and thus can’t really solve any of the problems himself, and partly because the problems he’s facing are burdened by the laws of mathematics and physics.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
Despite his connections and funding, Sam Altman still can't get past these obvious problems, partly because he isn't technical and so can't really solve them himself, and partly because the problems are burdened by the laws of mathematics and physics.
Assessment: Unresolved Evidence as of
Where and when Ed Zitron wrote it
Where's Your Ed At, Expectations Versus Reality, paragraph 17.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment wyea-expectations-versus-reality-109c3f-a1
We recorded 28 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2024-05-13. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Causal claim
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- None stated. This site does not add one.
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- No horizon (the release’s reference date)
Conditions
- partly (qualifier, stated by the speaker)
- despite being the most well-connected and well-funded man in AI (scope, stated by the speaker)
From the speaker
- still can’t get past any of these very obvious problems
- partly because he isn’t technical
- can’t really solve any of the problems himself
- burdened by the laws of mathematics and physics
Our interpretation
- Assess the explanation for OpenAI's limitations as of May 13, 2024, rather than a prediction that improvement is impossible.
- The surrounding discussion identifies reliability, computational expense, energy requirements and video-generation limitations.
- Read 'isn’t technical' as lacking the expertise to personally solve these research and engineering problems, rather than never having programmed.
- Support requires evidence connecting Altman's expertise to the persistence of the limitations. Their coexistence is insufficient.
- The references to funding and connections are background to the causal claim, not a separate financial ranking.
Counts as supported if: Technical analyses and development records establish that the identified limitations persisted, and that both Altman's limited technical expertise and specified mathematical or physical constraints materially contributed.
Counts as contradicted if: Development records or technical findings directly refute the proposed causal links, or establish that the identified limitations had already been overcome.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Does the evidence support the cause?
Outcome: Unresolved
The record was checked, and the evidence available by the cutoff does not settle it.
Scored on a plain reading. The speaker named no measure for this claim, so it was judged on the reading an informed reader would take, stated below under our interpretation. Both reviews had to find that reading fair.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
There is evidence of model limitations, conditional mathematical constraints and concerns about Altman's technical expertise. These facts do not establish the asserted causal chain. OpenAI also documented improvements, so continuing limitations cannot fairly be treated as evidence that it had made no progress.
Limitations
- Public reporting provides limited access to internal technical decisions.
- Personal expertise and organizational research capacity are different questions.
Evidence (3 items)
Context only: OpenAI,
it still is not fully reliable
Why it matters here: OpenAI acknowledged reliability problems while also reporting reduced hallucination relative to earlier models. This establishes neither their persistence for the asserted reasons nor an absence of progress.
- Publisher
- OpenAI
- Kind of source
- Company disclosure: the company describing itself, not an independent finding
- Describes events of
- Public from
Context only: arXiv; Adam Tauman Kalai and Santosh S. Vempala,
may mitigate
Why it matters here: The paper establishes a statistical lower bound for certain arbitrary facts under a calibration condition, while allowing mitigation for other errors. It does not establish a general physical barrier or a causal role for Altman.
- Publisher
- arXiv; Adam Tauman Kalai and Santosh S. Vempala
- Kind of source
- Preprint, not peer reviewed
- Describes events of
- Public from
Context only: The New Yorker,
misusing or confusing basic technical terms
Why it matters here: Original reporting lends weight to concerns about his technical expertise. The recollections are not precisely dated and do not show that his expertise caused the limitations described in May 2024.
- Publisher
- The New Yorker
- Kind of source
- News report
- Describes events of
- Public from
What would settle it
Dated development records identifying how Altman's technical involvement affected particular unresolved problems, together with technical analyses establishing or refuting the claimed fundamental constraints.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Where's Your Ed At, Expectations Versus Reality
and he still can’t get past any of these very obvious problems, partly because he isn’t technical and thus can’t really solve any of the problems himself, and partly because the problems he’s facing are burdened by the laws of mathematics and physics.
- Where
- paragraph 17
- Published
- 2024-05-13
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment wyea-expectations-versus-reality-109c3f-a1: Current. Outcome: Unresolved. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment wyea-expectations-versus-reality-109c3f-a1.