“Indeed, the NHTSA report data show that even some pretty ordinary circumstances, like avoiding stopped vehicles, are continuing to prove problematic.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
NHTSA data show even ordinary circumstances like avoiding stopped vehicles remain problematic for automated driving systems.
Assessment: Supported Evidence as of
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, Will Tesla ever “Solve” Full Self Driving?, paragraph 35.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment marcus-will-tesla-ever-solve-full-self-driving-de30d0-a1
We recorded 12 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-29. The source may have been edited after 2022-06-15. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Observation
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- None stated. This site does not add one.
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- No horizon (the release’s reference date)
From the speaker
- the NHTSA report data
- ordinary circumstances
- avoiding stopped vehicles
- continuing to prove problematic
Our interpretation
- The plain reading is that NHTSA documented continuing collisions involving stopped vehicles during automated or assisted operation.
- Problematic does not specify a crash-rate threshold, establish fault in every incident, or imply that these systems perform worse than human drivers.
- Use July 2021 through May 15, 2022, the reporting window associated with the initial June 2022 release.
- Contemporaneous NHTSA investigation records can corroborate the underlying observation; distinguish them from the specific June 15 summary reports.
Counts as supported if: NHTSA records document collisions within the reporting window in which vehicles operating with driving automation failed to avoid stopped vehicles.
Counts as contradicted if: The relevant records show that the purported stopped-vehicle examples did not occur, involved no driving automation, or were solely cases of stationary automated vehicles being struck by others.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Was it true for the period described?
Outcome: Supported
The dated evidence matches what the claim committed to, under the criteria frozen before grading.
Scored on a plain reading. The speaker named no measure for this claim, so it was judged on the reading an informed reader would take, stated below under our interpretation. Both reviews had to find that reading fair.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
NHTSA's contemporaneous investigation documents additional Autopilot collisions with stopped first-responder vehicles during the relevant window. That supports the modest observation that avoiding stopped vehicles remained problematic. It does not establish a failure rate, blame automation for every crash, or show that all automated-driving systems shared the same problem.
Limitations
- The decisive source is NHTSA's contemporaneous investigation, not a verified extraction of the specific June 15 summary tables.
- These are Level 2 Tesla incidents and cannot establish the performance of every ADS developer.
- The investigation also examines driver supervision and human behavior.
Evidence (1 item)
Supports the claim: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration,
Three crashes (Orlando, Petaluma, Desert Center) involved first responder or crash attenuator trucks in the roadway and occurred after PE21-020 opened.
Why it matters here: The surrounding summary identifies these as additional Autopilot collisions with stopped first-responder vehicles. Its incident list dates Orlando to August 2021, Petaluma to September 2021, and Desert Center to January 2022; the event date records the latest of these in-window incidents.
- Publisher
- National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
- Kind of source
- Official statistics
- Describes events of
- Public from
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, Will Tesla ever “Solve” Full Self Driving?
Indeed, the NHTSA report data show that even some pretty ordinary circumstances, like avoiding stopped vehicles, are continuing to prove problematic.
- Where
- paragraph 35
- Published
- 2022-06-15
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment marcus-will-tesla-ever-solve-full-self-driving-de30d0-a1: Current. Outcome: Supported. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
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