“Clearly, the number of incidents would go up, as the number of vehicles went up, and would also go up significantly as the systems were more regularly challenged with more difficult driving conditions (bad weather, more erratic pedestrians, etc), and likely jump radically if we took humans out of the loop altogether.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
If the whole US fleet used current self-driving software, incidents would rise with more vehicles and harder conditions, and likely jump radically without humans in the loop.
Assessment: Can’t be checked Not checked against evidence
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, Will Tesla ever “Solve” Full Self Driving?, paragraph 27.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence
- Not checkedboth screens found it cannot be checked
- Assessment recorded
- assessment marcus-will-tesla-ever-solve-full-self-driving-25b514-a1
We recorded 12 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-29. The source may have been edited after 2022-06-15. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Conditional forecast
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- None stated. This site does not add one.
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- No horizon (the release’s reference date)
Conditions
- if the entire US fleet used such software (antecedent, stated by the speaker)
- with more difficult conditions (antecedent, stated by the speaker)
- if humans were taken out of the loop (antecedent, stated by the speaker)
From the speaker
- if the entire US fleet used such software
- with more difficult conditions
- if humans were taken out of the loop
Our interpretation
None added.
This claim is not graded on evidence. The record checks that the words are quoted correctly and attributed to the right person, and that the claim is classified correctly.
Current assessment
Not graded on evidence
Outcome: Can’t be checked
Both AI providers screened this claim on their own and found that public evidence could not settle it. It is recorded and attributed, not scored.
Why it can’t be checked
Each screen gave its own reason:
- About something no public evidence could show, such as a private intention or a counterfactual.
- Stated as a chance or a possibility, or at medium or low confidence.
- Evidence
- Not checked
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
Not checked against evidence. Two independent screens, one from each provider, both found that evidence could not settle it: one found it about something no public evidence could show, such as a private intention or a counterfactual; the other found it stated as a chance or a possibility, or at medium or low confidence.
Limitations
None recorded.
Evidence (0 items)
No evidence was searched for. Both screens found that public evidence could not settle this claim.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, Will Tesla ever “Solve” Full Self Driving?
Clearly, the number of incidents would go up, as the number of vehicles went up, and would also go up significantly as the systems were more regularly challenged with more difficult driving conditions (bad weather, more erratic pedestrians, etc), and likely jump radically if we took humans out of the loop altogether.
- Where
- paragraph 27
- Published
- 2022-06-15
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment marcus-will-tesla-ever-solve-full-self-driving-25b514-a1: Current. Outcome: Can’t be checked. Not checked against evidence. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment marcus-will-tesla-ever-solve-full-self-driving-25b514-a1.