“When it comes out, it will totally eclipse ChatGPT; it’s safe bet that even more people will be talking about it..”
Our reading:
GPT-4 will eclipse ChatGPT and attract even more attention.
Assessment: Unresolved
What happened
Did the forecast come true?
Outcome: Unresolved
We checked, and the evidence so far doesn’t settle it.
Judged on a plain reading. They named no measure, so we used the reading a typical informed reader would take. It is spelled out under “How we judged it”.
Evidence up to . Checked .
Why
OpenAI made GPT-4 available within ChatGPT Plus on March 14, 2023 [e1]. AI Impacts' February 23, 2023 analysis documents ChatGPT search interest before that release, without measuring GPT-4 attention [e2]. These sources do not establish whether GPT-4 attracted substantially more public attention than the earlier ChatGPT, including whether more people discussed it [e1, e2]. The predicted increase in attention remains unresolved on this evidence [e1, e2].
Caveats
- The packet provides no comparable attention measurements for both launches.
- GPT-4 discussion could appear under the ChatGPT name because GPT-4 was available within that product.
- Search volume alone does not count the people discussing a subject.
- The claim specifies no attention measure, comparison window or numerical threshold.
Evidence (2 items)
Supports the claim: OpenAI,
We’re excited to bring GPT-4, our latest model, to our ChatGPT Plus subscribers.
Why it matters: GPT-4's release satisfies the forecast's antecedent. Its distribution within ChatGPT also makes comparisons based only on the two names difficult to interpret.
- Publisher
- OpenAI
- Kind of source
- Company disclosure: the company describing itself, not an independent finding
- About events on
- Published
Context only: AI Impacts,
ChatGPT is receiving mainstream attention.
Why it matters: This Google Trends analysis documents substantial attention to ChatGPT before GPT-4's release. It does not measure GPT-4 or establish which launch attracted more attention.
- Publisher
- AI Impacts
- Kind of source
- Independent measurement
- About events on
- Published
How we judged it
- Kind of claim
- Forecast
- Deadline
- None given. We don’t add one.
Conditions
- when it comes out (their words)
Where we had to interpret
- Read together, these phrases predict that GPT-4's release will attract substantially more public attention than ChatGPT had attracted.
- The comparison is with the ChatGPT available when Marcus wrote the post, rather than all later versions of that product.
- Search interest, news coverage and public discussion can measure attention, but none alone measures the number of people talking.
- Marcus specifies neither a measurement window nor a numerical threshold. The surrounding reference to a rumored spring release is not a firm deadline.
Right if: Comparable measurements show that attention surrounding GPT-4's release substantially exceeded attention surrounding ChatGPT's introduction, with a consistent result across reasonable launch windows and measures.
Wrong if: Comparable measurements show that GPT-4's release attracted no more attention than ChatGPT's introduction, with a consistent result across reasonable launch windows and measures.
We wrote this test after the outcome was known.
What would settle it
A retrospective comparison of attention surrounding both launches using comparable populations, platforms, geographic coverage and launch-relative windows. It should account for GPT-4 discussion under the ChatGPT name and establish a consistent direction across reasonable windows and multiple attention measures.
We found 29 claims in this post. See them all.
Full record
Source and dates
Marcus on AI, What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-4, paragraph 26.
- Said
- We read the source
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence up to
- Checked
We read this wording on 2026-10-29. The post may have been edited after 2022-12-25.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the posts we read.
: Marcus on AI, What to Expect When You’re Expecting … GPT-4
When it comes out, it will totally eclipse ChatGPT; it’s safe bet that even more people will be talking about it..
- Where
- paragraph 26
- Published
- 2022-12-25
- We read it
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Versions
- Current: Unresolved. Evidence up to 2026-10-28.
What happened to this record
PublishedBy us
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
Held backBy us
The final check failed: our summary didn’t match their words.