“Actually, at any moment, we will finally get GPT 4.5, which most certainly wouldn’t live up to expectations around GPT-5 — hence its rather tentative name.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
GPT 4.5 will not live up to the expectations that had been set for GPT-5.
Assessment: Supported Settled before its deadline on 2026-10-29 Evidence as of
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, GPT 4.5 is no GPT-5, paragraph 2.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment marcus-gpt-45-is-no-gpt-5-6a1ee1-a1
We recorded 14 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2025-02-26. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Forecast
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- None stated. This site does not add one.
- Deadline state when assessed
- Settled before its deadline
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- Settled before its deadline (the release’s reference date)
From the speaker
- at any moment
- we will finally get GPT 4.5
- most certainly wouldn’t live up to expectations around GPT-5
Our interpretation
- The preceding paragraph supplies the concrete expectations: solving hallucinations and fixing reasoning.
- Assess the capabilities of the imminent GPT-4.5 release. This is not a forecast about every later OpenAI model.
- 'At any moment' expresses imminence but supplies no definite latest date.
- Persistent substantial hallucination and reasoning errors would establish failure to meet those concrete expectations; improvements alone would not contradict the forecast.
Counts as supported if: The released GPT-4.5 demonstrably retains hallucinations and reasoning failures.
Counts as contradicted if: Broad, credible evaluations establish that the released GPT-4.5 reliably resolves the hallucination and reasoning problems described in the preceding paragraph.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Did the forecast come true?
Outcome: Supported
The dated evidence matches what the claim committed to, under the criteria frozen before grading.
Scored on a plain reading. The speaker named no measure for this claim, so it was judged on the reading an informed reader would take, stated below under our interpretation. Both reviews had to find that reading fair.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- Settled before its deadline
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
GPT-4.5's release evaluations showed persistent hallucinations and reasoning failures. Under the concrete expectations supplied by the preceding paragraph, the launch settles the forecast in Marcus's favor. The same records show improvements over GPT-4o; this assessment does not endorse a broader claim that GPT-4.5 offered no progress or disappointed every user.
Limitations
- The decisive measurements are company-reported.
- Benchmark error rates do not describe every real-world use.
- The result depends on using the surrounding paragraph's concrete expectations.
Evidence (2 items)
Supports the claim: OpenAI,
on par or better
Why it matters here: The release card reports a PersonQA hallucination rate of 0.19 for GPT-4.5. That is an improvement over the comparison models, but hallucinations clearly remain.
- Publisher
- OpenAI
- Kind of source
- Company disclosure: the company describing itself, not an independent finding
- Describes events of
- Public from
Supports the claim: OpenAI,
a step forward
Why it matters here: The launch appendix reports 36.7% on AIME 2024 and 71.4% on GPQA, demonstrating remaining failures. Both exceed GPT-4o's reported scores, so the evidence also establishes meaningful progress.
- Publisher
- OpenAI
- Kind of source
- Company disclosure: the company describing itself, not an independent finding
- Describes events of
- Public from
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, GPT 4.5 is no GPT-5
Actually, at any moment, we will finally get GPT 4.5, which most certainly wouldn’t live up to expectations around GPT-5 — hence its rather tentative name.
- Where
- paragraph 2
- Published
- 2025-02-26
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment marcus-gpt-45-is-no-gpt-5-6a1ee1-a1: Current. Outcome: Supported. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.