“I think there is almost zero chance that artificial general intelligence (which his podcast guest reasonably defines as “a system capable of doing almost any cognitive task a human can do“) will arrive in the next two to three years, especially given how disappointing GPT 4.5 turned out to be.”
Our reading:
There is almost zero chance that AGI, meaning a system that can do almost any cognitive task a human can do, will arrive within the next two to three years.
Assessment: Can’t be checked
What happened
Not graded on evidence
Outcome: Can’t be checked
An opinion, a recommendation, or too vague to test. Listed, not scored.
Evidence up to . Checked .
Why
Marcus explicitly said there was “almost zero chance” of AGI arriving within two to three years. That is a probability assessment. The supplied reviewer instruction excludes such claims from scoring. Treating AGI's arrival as automatic contradiction, or its nonarrival as automatic support, would replace his statement with a categorical forecast. The stated window ends March 5, 2028, after the evaluation date, but the reason for this disposition is the probability exclusion.
Caveats
- This disposition does not assess whether Marcus's probability estimate was reasonable.
- It makes no finding about whether any system meets the quoted AGI definition.
Evidence (0 items)
Claims like this aren’t scored, so there is no evidence to show.
How we judged it
- Kind of claim
- Forecast
- Deadline
- “in the next two to three years”
Where we had to interpret
- Marcus assigns a very low probability to AGI arriving within the stated period. He does not assert that its arrival is impossible.
- The latest endpoint of the stated window is March 5, 2028, three years after publication.
- The GPT 4.5 remark supplies a reason for his probability assessment, not a condition that must occur before the forecast applies.
- The supplied reviewer instruction excludes probability claims from scoring. Recasting this statement as a categorical prediction of no AGI would change what Marcus said.
We don’t grade claims like this. We only check the quote and who said it.
We found 30 claims in this post. See them all.
Full record
Source and dates
Marcus on AI, Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong, paragraph 5.
- Said
- We read the source
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence up to
- Checked
We read this wording on 2026-10-28. The post may have been edited after 2025-03-05.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the posts we read.
: Marcus on AI, Ezra Klein’s new take on AGI – and why I think it’s probably wrong
I think there is almost zero chance that artificial general intelligence (which his podcast guest reasonably defines as “a system capable of doing almost any cognitive task a human can do“) will arrive in the next two to three years, especially given how disappointing GPT 4.5 turned out to be.
- Where
- paragraph 5
- Published
- 2025-03-05
- We read it
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Versions
- Current: Can’t be checked. Evidence up to 2026-10-28.
What happened to this record
PublishedBy us
Published after both AI reviews and the final check passed.
Held backBy us
A reviewer said our test wasn’t fair to what was actually said.