“I could be persuaded that on some measures there was a doubling of capabilities for some set of months in 2020-2023, but I don’t see that case at all for the last 13 months.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
Marcus could be persuaded that LLM capabilities doubled on some measures for some months in 2020-2023, but he does not see that case at all for the 13 months since GPT-4's release.
Assessment: Can’t be checked Evidence as of
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, Evidence that LLMs are reaching a point of diminishing returns - and what that might mean, paragraph 4.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment marcus-evidence-that-llms-are-reaching-a-8fb984-a2
We recorded 20 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-29. The source may have been edited after 2024-04-13. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Observation
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- None stated. This site does not add one.
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- No horizon (the release’s reference date)
Conditions
- on some measures, for some set of months in 2020-2023 (scope, stated by the speaker)
- last 13 months (scope, stated by the speaker)
- as he sees it ('I don't see that case') (qualifier, stated by the speaker)
From the speaker
- I could be persuaded
- on some measures
- some set of months in 2020-2023
- I don’t see that case at all
- the last 13 months
Our interpretation
- This expresses Marcus's evidential judgment rather than an unqualified assertion that no capability doubled.
- The recent interval is the thirteen months preceding April 13, 2024.
- No ordinary, unique numerical meaning of doubling general capabilities is supplied. Selecting accuracy, error reduction, task breadth, or another scale would materially rewrite the claim.
- The references to possible earlier doubling and his own judgment are qualifications, not forecast antecedents.
This claim is not graded on evidence. The record checks that the words are quoted correctly and attributed to the right person, and that the claim is classified correctly.
Current assessment
Not graded on evidence
Outcome: Can’t be checked
The statement is a recommendation, a value judgment, or too open to test. It is recorded, not scored.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
Marcus's April 13, 2024 statement says he could be persuaded of doubling on some measures during parts of 2020–2023 but does not see the case for the preceding 13 months. [marcus-evidence-that-llms-are-reaching-a-8fb984-o1] This expresses his qualified evidential judgment without specifying a capability measure, model comparison, or numerical meaning of doubling. [marcus-evidence-that-llms-are-reaching-a-8fb984-o1] An objective score would therefore require supplying central terms absent from the statement. [marcus-evidence-that-llms-are-reaching-a-8fb984-o1]
Limitations
- The packet contains no evidence items establishing a defined capability comparison.
- This assessment neither supports nor rejects the broader argument about the rate of LLM progress.
Evidence (0 items)
No outcome evidence: a claim of this kind is recorded and attributed, not scored.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, Evidence that LLMs are reaching a point of diminishing returns - and what that might mean
I could be persuaded that on some measures there was a doubling of capabilities for some set of months in 2020-2023, but I don’t see that case at all for the last 13 months.
- Where
- paragraph 4
- Published
- 2024-04-13
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment marcus-evidence-that-llms-are-reaching-a-8fb984-a2: Current. Outcome: Can’t be checked. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment marcus-evidence-that-llms-are-reaching-a-8fb984-a2.