“The massive paper looks at scaling on many measures, and sees progress on some– but not others. The stuff that isn’t scaling is the “wall”.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
The BIG-bench paper looked at scaling on many measures and found progress on some but not others, and the measures that did not scale in it are what Marcus calls the 'wall'.
Assessment: Supported Evidence as of
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, Does AI really need a paradigm shift?, paragraph 37.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence as of
- the cutoff for this assessment
- Assessment recorded
- assessment marcus-does-ai-really-need-a-paradigm-shift-b5bb62-a1
We recorded 14 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-29. The source may have been edited after 2022-06-11. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Observation
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- None stated. This site does not add one.
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- No horizon (the release’s reference date)
Conditions
- in the BIG-bench paper's findings (scope, stated by the speaker)
- progress on some but not others (scope, stated by the speaker)
From the speaker
- The massive paper looks at scaling on many measures
- sees progress on some– but not others
- The stuff that isn’t scaling is the “wall”
Our interpretation
- The paper is the original June 2022 BIG-bench report.
- Progress means improvement in the reported task metrics across evaluated model sizes.
- Marcus explicitly labels the non-improving measures the wall. In this sentence, that label does not independently establish that they can never improve.
Counts as supported if: The original paper evaluates many tasks and reports improving scores on some while other scores remain flat over the tested scales.
Counts as contradicted if: The original paper does not report that pattern, or every evaluated task measure improves with scale.
Retrospective: these criteria were written after the outcome was public.
Current assessment
Was it true for the period described?
Outcome: Supported
The dated evidence matches what the claim committed to, under the criteria frozen before grading.
Scored on a plain reading. The speaker named no measure for this claim, so it was judged on the reading an informed reader would take, stated below under our interpretation. Both reviews had to find that reading fair.
- Evidence as of
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
The original BIG-bench paper explicitly reports the pattern Marcus describes. His use of wall names the measures that did not improve in those experiments. The evidence supports that historical description, while leaving future scalability open.
Limitations
- The finding applies to the evaluated models, scales and metrics.
- Some metrics can conceal gradual progress.
- This assessment does not establish an unavoidable or permanent wall.
Evidence (1 item)
Supports the claim: Srivastava et al.; arXiv,
no improvement with scale
Why it matters here: The report directly confirms improving and non-improving task scores across evaluated scales. Its discussion of smoother metrics limits what those flat scores imply about underlying capabilities.
- Publisher
- Srivastava et al.; arXiv
- Kind of source
- Preprint, not peer reviewed
- Describes events of
- Public from
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, Does AI really need a paradigm shift?
The massive paper looks at scaling on many measures, and sees progress on some– but not others. The stuff that isn’t scaling is the “wall”.
- Where
- paragraph 37
- Published
- 2022-06-11
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment marcus-does-ai-really-need-a-paradigm-shift-b5bb62-a1: Current. Outcome: Supported. Evidence as of 2026-10-28. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment marcus-does-ai-really-need-a-paradigm-shift-b5bb62-a1.