Gary Marcus Conditional forecast First said 2022-05-31

“Things like programming verification might eventually help, but again, in deep learning we don’t yet have the tools for writing verifiable code. If you are to win the bet, we are probably going to have to solve that problem too, and soon.”

Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI, paragraph 31. The full statement is at the source.

Our reading, the sentence that was checked:

Deep learning lacks tools for verifiable code, and AGI by 2029 would probably require solving that soon.

Assessment: Can’t be checked Not checked against evidence

Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it

Marcus on AI, Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI, paragraph 31.

Said: 2022-05-31
Source observed: 2026-10-28live page, full text, public
Evidence: Not checkedboth screens found it cannot be checked
Assessment recorded: 2026-10-29assessment marcus-dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things-fcf450-a1

We recorded 21 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.

The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2022-05-31. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.

What the claim commits to

Kind: Conditional forecast
Deadline, as the speaker wrote it: “soon”
Deadline state when assessed: No horizon
Deadline state on 2026-10-29: No horizon (the release’s reference date)

Conditions

if AGI is to arrive by 2029 (antecedent, stated by the speaker)

From the speaker

if AGI is to arrive by 2029
soon

Our interpretation

None added.

This claim is not graded on evidence. The record checks that the words are quoted correctly and attributed to the right person, and that the claim is classified correctly.

Current assessment

Not graded on evidence

Outcome: Can’t be checked

Both AI providers screened this claim on their own and found that public evidence could not settle it. It is recorded and attributed, not scored.

Why it can’t be checked

Both screens gave the same reason:

Stated as a chance or a possibility, or at medium or low confidence.

Evidence: Not checked
Deadline state when assessed: No horizon
Assessment recorded: 2026-10-29
Policy version: 2026-10-28.7

Rationale

Not checked against evidence. Two independent screens, one from each provider, both found this stated as a chance or a possibility, or at medium or low confidence.

Limitations

None recorded.

Evidence (0 items)

No evidence was searched for. Both screens found that public evidence could not settle this claim.

This claim was not checked against evidence. claude-opus-5-5 (Anthropic) extracted it from the post and wrote the sentence at the top, our reading of the claim. claude-opus-5-5 (Anthropic) and gpt-6-astra (OpenAI) then screened it independently, without seeing each other’s answers. Both confirmed that the sentence says what the author said, and both found that public evidence could not settle the claim. No model wrote the assessment: code composed its text from the two screens, so there was no separate check of the final text. Code, not a model, decided whether it could be published.

Agreement between models is a check on the record, not proof that the assessment is right. Anthropic and OpenAI make these models, and some claims on this site are about those companies. How the method works.

Where it was said (1)

Said once in the sources this register covers.

2022-05-31: Marcus on AI, Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI
Things like programming verification might eventually help, but again, in deep learning we don’t yet have the tools for writing verifiable code. If you are to win the bet, we are probably going to have to solve that problem too, and soon.
Where
paragraph 31
Published
2022-05-31
Source observed
2026-10-28, live page
Access
full text, public

History

Assessment versions

Assessment marcus-dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things-fcf450-a1: Current. Outcome: Can’t be checked. Not checked against evidence. Public date not recorded.

Recorded events

2026-10-29
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment marcus-dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things-fcf450-a1.