“Being realistic, 7 years might well not be enough to (a) invent those tools (if they are don’t already exist) and (b) take them from the lab into production.”
Our reading, the sentence that was checked:
Seven years might well not be enough to invent the further techniques needed, if they do not already exist, and to take them from the lab into production.
Assessment: Can’t be checked Not checked against evidence
Where and when Gary Marcus wrote it
Marcus on AI, Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI, paragraph 25.
- Said
- Source observed
- live page, full text, public
- Evidence
- Not checkedboth screens found it cannot be checked
- Assessment recorded
- assessment marcus-dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things-b5e529-a1
We recorded 21 claims from this post. See every claim from this post.
The wording above is the version this site observed on 2026-10-28. The source may have been edited after 2022-05-31. This page does not claim the wording was captured then.
What the claim commits to
- Kind
- Forecast
- Deadline, as the speaker wrote it
- “7 years”
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Deadline state on 2026-10-29
- No horizon (the release’s reference date)
Conditions
- if they don't already exist (qualifier, stated by the speaker)
- being realistic (qualifier, stated by the speaker)
From the speaker
- if they don't already exist
- being realistic
- 7 years
Our interpretation
None added.
This claim is not graded on evidence. The record checks that the words are quoted correctly and attributed to the right person, and that the claim is classified correctly.
Current assessment
Not graded on evidence
Outcome: Can’t be checked
Both AI providers screened this claim on their own and found that public evidence could not settle it. It is recorded and attributed, not scored.
Why it can’t be checked
Both screens gave the same reason:
- Stated as a chance or a possibility, or at medium or low confidence.
- Evidence
- Not checked
- Deadline state when assessed
- No horizon
- Assessment recorded
- Policy version
- 2026-10-28.7
Rationale
Not checked against evidence. Two independent screens, one from each provider, both found this stated as a chance or a possibility, or at medium or low confidence.
Limitations
None recorded.
Evidence (0 items)
No evidence was searched for. Both screens found that public evidence could not settle this claim.
Where it was said (1)
Said once in the sources this register covers.
: Marcus on AI, Dear Elon Musk, here are five things you might want to consider about AGI
Being realistic, 7 years might well not be enough to (a) invent those tools (if they are don’t already exist) and (b) take them from the lab into production.
- Where
- paragraph 25
- Published
- 2022-05-31
- Source observed
- , live page
- Access
- full text, public
History
Assessment versions
- Assessment marcus-dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things-b5e529-a1: Current. Outcome: Can’t be checked. Not checked against evidence. Public date not recorded.
Recorded events
Assessment publishedBy this site
First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.
About assessment marcus-dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things-b5e529-a1.