Pundit ClaimsAI claims by Gary Marcus and Ed Zitron, with the evidence

Changes, page 7 of 37

Every substantive change to the register, newest first. Speaker events record what the people covered said or changed. Site events record what this site published, corrected, flagged, or withdrew. The two never share a label.

Substantive changes (7383)

Page 7 of 37: changes 1201 to 1400 of 7383, newest first. Dates are when the change was recorded.

  1. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Altman is dangerous to artificial intelligence not because he is building AGI but because his focus is on what he can build to grow his own power and influence.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-false-prophet-be183a-a1.

  2. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-false-prophet-b0b579

    The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.

  4. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    AI company insiders should worry less about AI coming alive and more about Altman getting rich on egregious promises about AI, though real AI safety issues exist.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-false-prophet-56f4ca-a1.

  5. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Venture capital should back companies that make a profit building software and hardware that actually helps people.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-false-prophet-3325d8-a1.

  7. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-false-prophet-0fe23c

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  8. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Sam Altman is a false prophet who manipulates Silicon Valley's elite to hide a total lack of technical or business acumen.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-false-prophet-074eb5-a1.

  9. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    ChatGPT mimics depth and experience by parroting others, and Altman exploits a tech industry that may have no hyper-growth markets left.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-false-prophet-002fb3-a1.

  10. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Companies should get no credit for features not yet delivered, and companies like Rabbit that hype half-solutions should be harshly criticized.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-expectations-versus-reality-e526d5-a1.

  11. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-expectations-versus-reality-d9fa1b

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  12. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-expectations-versus-reality-d789b5

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  13. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Sora's 10-20 minute generation wait is likely to increase once more people use it.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-expectations-versus-reality-c31270-a1.

  14. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-expectations-versus-reality-ad10c0

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  15. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    The tech industry should build products that solve real problems for ordinary people.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-expectations-versus-reality-a5b23f-a1.

  16. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Perhaps there wasn't much artificial intelligence happening at all in Rabbit's Large Action Model.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-expectations-versus-reality-9de158-a1.

  18. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Sora's main problem is imprecision caused by generative AI not really knowing anything.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-expectations-versus-reality-97eedf-a1.

  19. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-expectations-versus-reality-8ff899

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  20. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-expectations-versus-reality-7f01fe

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  22. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-expectations-versus-reality-65d0fb

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  23. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    In the author's view, it may take an energy breakthrough and more chips for generative AI to reach any level of necessity.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-expectations-versus-reality-5eb14d-a1.

  25. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    People should accept that AI will not automate our entire lives and may be far more mediocre than Sam Altman claims.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-expectations-versus-reality-35f172-a1.

  26. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-expectations-versus-reality-2b8980

    The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.

  27. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-expectations-versus-reality-2179bc

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  28. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-expectations-versus-reality-13935b

    The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.

  29. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Anthropic is likely committed to nearly doubling its chip-rental spending just as its growth slows.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-exit-liquidity-f8a85a-a1.

  30. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    The AI industry is sold with genuine contempt for end customers and investors.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-exit-liquidity-f50f10-a1.

  32. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Eventually the money funding AI (VC for customers, data-center debt, investor tolerance of capex) will run out, and his skeptical view will then become consensus.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-exit-liquidity-bf3574-a1.

  33. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Anthropic is intentionally misleading IPO investors at an unprecedented scale.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-exit-liquidity-b8dd1a-a1.

  34. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-exit-liquidity-b8b167

    The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.

  35. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    AI is a bubble, and the longer it lasts, the worse the damage will be.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-exit-liquidity-b83e75-a1.

  36. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    If Anthropic debuts at $1.4 trillion, it would no doubt be a massive disappointment for those who invested when the company was targeting a $960 billion paper valuation.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-exit-liquidity-b81710-a1.

  37. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    He believes Anthropic's IPO is an egregious swindle of retail investors.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-exit-liquidity-b0394d-a1.

  38. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Anthropic's failure to include exact breakdowns of its compute commitments is an insult to basically every investor putting money into its IPO.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-exit-liquidity-adb9e1-a1.

  39. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-exit-liquidity-adb01a

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  40. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-exit-liquidity-a811bb

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  41. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-exit-liquidity-9dc5ac

    The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.

  42. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Enterprise token-maxxing ended around Q2–Q3 2026, and that is why Anthropic is rushing to IPO before investors learn about its latest quarter.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-exit-liquidity-915362-a1.

  43. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Anthropic's S-1 was timed opportunistically because most of its big compute contracts only started around Q2 2026.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-exit-liquidity-8add4b-a1.

  45. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Anthropic possibly raised about $65B pre-IPO at peak valuation because it foresaw post-IPO fundraising would be hard.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-exit-liquidity-73665f-a1.

  46. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Anthropic's lock-up schedule is designed to let insiders exit quickly by selling to retail investors.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-exit-liquidity-70ac7b-a1.

  47. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    He imagines Anthropic is pressing customers for minimum spends because it realizes it has bitten off more than it can chew with its compute commitments.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-exit-liquidity-6cf4d9-a1.

  48. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Anthropic offered temporary discounts to inflate revenue through its IPO, then withdrew them unless customers committed to more spend.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-exit-liquidity-6b73a2-a1.

  50. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Anthropic is unlikely to be truly economically viable because so much of its revenue depends on venture capital.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-exit-liquidity-46f1b4-a1.

  51. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-exit-liquidity-3f9903

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  53. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-exit-liquidity-25bcf6

    The openai screen doubts the attribution.

  54. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    An interest rate as high as the up-to-8.75% on parts of Musk's chip debt is an abominable rate that a borrower takes only when convinced the money is running out.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-exit-liquidity-224c0a-a1.

  55. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    The sole objective of Anthropic's IPO is to dump the company onto public markets.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-exit-liquidity-22170c-a1.

  56. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Anthropic deliberately chose Q2 2026 to present a misleadingly favorable picture of the company.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-exit-liquidity-1e482c-a1.

  57. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-exit-liquidity-1e2aea

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  58. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    The omissions in Anthropic's S-1 appear designed to obscure its future prospects.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-exit-liquidity-1681ac-a1.

  59. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    The author doubts that OpenAI can find a path to sustainability or profitability.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-exclusive-openai-financials-cc8ff1-2-a1.

  60. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    OpenAI's $10.59 billion R&D payment to Microsoft in 2025 most likely reflects the cost of training OpenAI's models.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-exclusive-openai-financials-36e4d8-a1.

  61. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-exclusive-openai-financials-297876

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  62. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    By his intuition, the AI Carlin jokes were likely made by feeding Carlin transcripts into a generative AI, prompted by the hosts and heavily edited.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-empty-laughter-e3292a-a1.

  64. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-empty-laughter-a7413e

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  65. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-empty-laughter-9b9b82

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  68. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-empty-laughter-35f804

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  69. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Dudesy's claimed 'state of the art entertainment AI' is more likely just someone typing prompts into a chatbot.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-empty-laughter-232db1-a1.

  70. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    An AI cannot experience time, frustration, jealousy, yearning, sickness, fatigue or any of the emotions that play into or impede creativity.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-empty-laughter-1fe828-a1.

  71. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Although Dudesy's voice may be AI-generated, a human is probably writing or heavily editing its scripts.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-empty-laughter-1c6640-a1.

  72. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Zitron does not believe that any 'need' for a particular artist's voice justifies creating an abominable digital clone with someone else's words in its mouth.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-empty-laughter-136733-a1.

  73. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Grok is a financial drain that may precipitate Twitter's death or bankruptcy.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-elons-gordian-knot-c87f5e-a1.

  74. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-elons-gordian-knot-a86a5d

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  75. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-elons-gordian-knot-a1b7c2

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  76. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    If Musk merges the companies (X and xAI), doing so would corrupt xAI in the same way that it has corrupted Musk, much like training Grok on xAI's data.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-elons-gordian-knot-96ce1d-a1.

  77. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Musk is likely to have Grok publish content directly on X despite the legal risk.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-elons-gordian-knot-25aa40-a1.

  79. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Attaching Grok to X is unlikely to increase its value by much.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-elons-gordian-knot-1a29c6-a1.

  80. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Grok will likely further pollute X's information pool via a feedback loop of generated nonsense retraining it.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-elons-gordian-knot-0ad501-a1.

  81. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Owning its own LLM makes Musk responsible for cutting Grok's costs, which he has proven unable to do without destruction.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-elons-gordian-knot-064c0c-a1.

  82. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    The AI capex boom was an industry-wide swindle mistaken for renewed tech growth.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dont-look-up-f2aa1c-a1.

  85. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-dont-look-up-d5d728

    The openai screen doubts the attribution.

  86. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    ROI for AI's end customers will probably not arrive fast enough to sustain the spending that generates upstream AI margins.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dont-look-up-cf0ddd-a1.

  87. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-dont-look-up-c59863

    The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.

  89. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    The media should warn readers that AI revenue is concentrated in two cash-burning companies and that matching demand is absent.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dont-look-up-9e4076-a1.

  90. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Anthropic and OpenAI's 2027 compute spend on Google Cloud, AWS and Azure is likely about $220 billion or more.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dont-look-up-925739-a1.

  91. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Microsoft's roughly $10.33 billion in annual non-OpenAI AI revenue is a catastrophic failure.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dont-look-up-8a8e7d-a1.

  92. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-dont-look-up-67c0cf

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  93. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Growing super fast is no longer sufficient for OpenAI and Anthropic.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dont-look-up-6495fa-a1.

  94. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Microsoft's roughly $10.33 billion in non-OpenAI AI revenue suggests a calamitous lack of demand both for GPU rentals and for software built on AI models.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dont-look-up-53d462-a1.

  95. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Anthropic and OpenAI will likely each need to raise about $150 billion by or during 2027.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dont-look-up-51ed62-a1.

  96. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    When he wrote the Rot-Com Bubble in 2024, the AI bubble was a series of exploits used to mask the end of tech's era of hypergrowth.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dont-look-up-2706ce-a1.

  97. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Journalists should discuss the AI industry's instability, circularity and centralization before discussing its theoretical returns or abilities.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dont-look-up-260660-a1.

  98. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-dont-look-up-24e747

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  99. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-dont-look-up-05aa71

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  100. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    A key purpose of Meta's generative AI team and open-source LLM is to make Meta appear to Wall Street to be doing something with generative AI.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-disruption-killed-innovation-f679c5-a1.

  102. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-disruption-killed-innovation-c81cd6

    The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.

  107. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-degenerative-ai-f69ff9

    The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.

  109. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-degenerative-ai-d50a6f

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  110. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-degenerative-ai-c7ec35

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  111. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-degenerative-ai-aee01a

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  112. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Microsoft would likely be potentially legally liable for content created by Bing's AI.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-degenerative-ai-8ca6c9-a1.

  113. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Seen as 'this is how search engines are going to work going forward,' the AI search errors are absolutely ridiculous, even though on their own they are minor.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-degenerative-ai-4fe295-a1.

  114. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-degenerative-ai-4dd8d5

    The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.

  115. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Even though ChatGPT's reinforcement from human feedback is done in-house, there is still the possibility that something could go terribly wrong.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-degenerative-ai-3e7831-a1.

  116. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Users of Microsoft's and Google's AI search are victims of executives seeking to please investors.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-degenerative-ai-1c83c6-a1.

  117. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    The way generative AI is thrown into the market, not the technology itself, has made it potentially dangerous.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-degenerative-ai-1b4ed9-a1.

  118. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Microsoft rushed out Bing AI to appear to be growing, though it is regularly wrong and manipulative to users.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-degenerative-ai-17cc34-a1.

  121. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    DeepSeek's models are likely to be much more profitable than OpenAI's products, though their profitability is uncertain.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-deep-impact-f4e8b8-a1.

  123. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-deep-impact-e7dbc9

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  125. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-deep-impact-cff9e0-2

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  126. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    LLMs are a bland software product, which is why no killer apps have emerged.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-deep-impact-c22d88-a1.

  127. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Altman and Amodei have lost their aura because their claim to be uniquely capable has been disproven.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-deep-impact-ac3d75-a1.

  128. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    ChatGPT Gov is unlikely to reverse OpenAI's dismal financial fortunes.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-deep-impact-a97a8a-a1.

  129. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    If OpenAI wants a cheaper, efficient model, it will likely have to build it from scratch.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-deep-impact-a1d648-a1.

  130. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    OpenAI is likely already raising another funding round just to stay afloat, on top of its $19 billion Stargate pledge.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-deep-impact-96ee65-a1.

  131. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-deep-impact-92a794

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  132. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-deep-impact-9030cf

    The openai screen doubts the attribution.

  133. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    OpenAI and Anthropic had the resources to build a model as efficient as DeepSeek's but preferred growth and bigger data centers.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-deep-impact-86a2a4-a1.

  134. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-deep-impact-821c5d

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  135. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    AI reasoning models do not think or know anything; reasoning is an LLM checking its work step by step.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-deep-impact-7e1834-a1.

  137. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-deep-impact-717d08

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  138. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    He says he was too generous in assuming that AI companies didn't pursue efficiency because they couldn't, when potentially they didn't because they couldn't be bothered.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-deep-impact-70b774-a1.

  139. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Synthetic training data may work for unambiguous domains like math but will likely cause bad side effects for fuzzy domains like text or analysis.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-deep-impact-68b761-a1.

  140. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-deep-impact-5ae556

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  142. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    After DeepSeek, there is no compelling argument for hundreds of billions in data center capex, new GPUs, or current-style LLMs.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-deep-impact-444616-a1.

  143. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    His guess is that markets will come to accept that generative AI is not the future.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-deep-impact-4226ec-a1.

  144. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    He would argue that, despite the large price difference between o1 and R1, the real danger to OpenAI and Anthropic is DeepSeek V3, which competes with GPT-4o.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-deep-impact-2f2be3-a1.

  146. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-deep-impact-18536e

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  147. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    ChatGPT is not essential and has only been treated as essential because the media and markets ran away with a narrative they barely understood.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-deep-impact-169c37-a1.

  148. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    DeepSeek likely distilled GPT-4o or Claude, though this is not known for certain.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-deep-impact-13c9cf-a1.

  149. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    We are at peak AI, and OpenAI and Anthropic may not be capable of the innovation they now depend on.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-deep-impact-12deb9-a1.

  150. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    The generative AI industry has been a con delivering modest-at-best outcomes.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-deep-impact-0e8fc5-a1.

  151. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Before the AI bubble bursts, AI startups will absorb billions more in VC with little chance of acquisition and near-zero chance of IPO.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dead-money-ffa747-a1.

  152. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Once AI data center debt becomes untenable, all such debt will be reevaluated, possibly triggering a bond sell-off that traps GPU credit investors.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dead-money-e8ab2f-a1.

  154. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    If Anthropic goes public, it will likely rely on junk/high-yield debt of $50–100 billion a year.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dead-money-db38f5-a1.

  155. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-dead-money-d3da28

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  156. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    If CoreWeave's and Oracle's debt prices are crashing and expected yields on their future debt are skyrocketing as a result, their problems are everyone's problems.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dead-money-d067bd-a1.

  159. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-dead-money-ac0456

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  160. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    AI data centers and their associated costs and debt are priced for a level of perfection that no other industry has ever rivaled.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dead-money-a7a49a-a1.

  161. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Cognition's actual revenues are likely around $300–400 million despite its claimed $1 billion annualized figure.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dead-money-a3f654-a1.

  162. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-dead-money-a1b0b7

    The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.

  163. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Hyperscaler AI revenues may actually be $150 billion or less, with Anthropic and OpenAI's share around 70–80%.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dead-money-9ef35e-a1.

  164. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Things are only going to get worse from here.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dead-money-850ddf-a1.

  165. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    OpenAI and Anthropic should be treated as economic disasters waiting to happen.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dead-money-6640b8-a1.

  166. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    AI startups training their own models is enormously expensive with little chance of payoff given the labs' advantages.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dead-money-64c0c0-a1.

  167. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    AI data center customers are brittle and unprofitable, and may not exist by the time construction is complete.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dead-money-644d58-a1.

  169. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    The last 18 months of AI capex is fundamentally speculative because there was never proof that trillion-dollar GPU and data center spending would pay off.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dead-money-566d11-a1.

  170. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    If Oracle raises more debt, it could be downgraded to junk by two agencies, forcing funds to dump its bonds.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dead-money-4c6597-a1.

  171. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-dead-money-457482

    The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.

  172. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    The AI bubble will break when the money runs out.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dead-money-4567cf-a1.

  173. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-dead-money-375c5a

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  174. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-dead-money-358b11

    The anthropic screen doubts the attribution.

  175. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-dead-money-302338

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  176. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-dead-money-24faba

    The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.

  177. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Because Oracle sits one rung above junk and its debt trades at junk rates, it would likely see new debt priced around 25–50bps above the flat repricing estimate.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-dead-money-231c9b-a1.

  179. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-dead-money-0ee003

    The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.

  180. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-dead-money-078f15

    The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.

  181. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-crowdstruck-2-13cbb0

    The openai screen doubts the attribution.

  182. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    If OpenAI or Anthropic gets an investment-grade rating, a hyperscaler has likely guaranteed the debt and would likely sacrifice part of its own credit rating.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-credit-crunch-b98b0f-a1.

  183. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-credit-crunch-b6b4bb

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  184. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-credit-crunch-ac8259

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  186. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    It is very unlikely that OpenAI and Anthropic will go public, grow forever, raise whatever debt they need, and that every data center investment works out fine.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-credit-crunch-a66815-a1.

  187. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-credit-crunch-a53100

    The anthropic screen finds the claim checkable, so it must be graded.

  188. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Most AI demand is driven by hype; once the bubble bursts, demand will depend only on utility and little post-bubble AI economy may exist.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-credit-crunch-a30bfb-a1.

  189. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-credit-crunch-6f2d5c

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  190. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    There is no rational basis for believing the AI industry's economics will turn out fine.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-credit-crunch-6b1715-a1.

  191. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    OpenAI and Anthropic should not be allowed to raise debt at anything but the junkiest levels.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-credit-crunch-635815-a1.

  192. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-credit-crunch-4d3b5c

    The anthropic screen reads the claim differently.

  193. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    Virtually every AI venture investment could go to zero.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-credit-crunch-47d6fe-a1.

  194. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    OpenAI and Anthropic account for 80%+ of compute demand, and their startup customers (80% of enterprise revenue) are likely to die before them.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-credit-crunch-3cbb04-a1.

  196. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    At a $2 trillion valuation with a roughly 5% float, Anthropic could maybe do about $20 billion in annual share sales, as a tentative guess given unknown trading volume.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-credit-crunch-2911f9-a1.

  197. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    People should stop comparing OpenAI and Anthropic to Amazon and Uber at their IPOs, because those comparisons are not accurate.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-credit-crunch-24c7f2-a1.

  198. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    If OpenAI or Anthropic get an investment-grade rating, it will be a catastrophic failure of regulation and ratings agencies at a level unseen in the equities markets.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-credit-crunch-21495f-a1.

  199. HeldBy this siteEd Zitron

    Held record wyea-credit-crunch-1c069e

    The openai screen reads the claim differently.

  200. Assessment publishedBy this siteEd Zitron

    OpenAI and Anthropic should not be allowed to go public because doing so harms investors.

    First assessment published after both reviews and the final-text check passed.

    Assessment wyea-credit-crunch-18d2b0-a1.