The Case Against Generative AI
We recorded 15 claims from this post. 15 can’t be checked. 8 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (15)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“The model companies similarly started going after individual and business customers, offering software and subscriptions that promised the world, though this mostly boiled down to chatbots that could generate stuff, and then doubled down with the promise of “agents” — a marketing term that’s meant to make you think “autonomous digital worker” but really means “broken digital product.””
Our reading: AI "agents" are a marketing term for what are really broken digital products.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It’s often emotive — or at the very least, driven or inspired by a given emotion — which is something that an AI simply can’t replicate in a way that’s authentic and believable.”
Our reading: AI cannot replicate emotive good writing in an authentic, believable way.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“The only thing “powerful” about generative AI is its mythology.”
Our reading: The only powerful thing about generative AI is its mythology.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“I must be clear that these deals are intentionally made to continue the myth of generative AI, to pump NVIDIA, and to make sure OpenAI insiders can sell $10.3 billion of shares.”
Our reading: The OpenAI-Oracle and NVIDIA-OpenAI deals are intentionally made to continue the myth of generative AI, to pump NVIDIA, and to make sure OpenAI insiders can sell $10.3 billion of shares.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“The bubble has entered its most pornographic, aggressive and destructive stage, where the more obvious it becomes that they’re cooked, the more ridiculous the generative AI industry will act — a dark juxtaposition against every new study that says “generative AI does not work” or new story about ChatGPT’s uncanny ability to activate mental illness in people.”
Our reading: The bubble has entered its most pornographic, aggressive and destructive stage, where the more obvious it becomes that they're cooked, the more ridiculous the generative AI industry will act.
No horizon
Qualifier: the more obvious it becomes that they're cooked
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Generative AI exists for two reasons: to cost money, and to make executives look busy.”
Our reading: Generative AI exists only to cost money and make executives look busy.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Generative AI was always set up to fail, because it was meant to be everything, was talked about like it was everything, is still sold like it’s everything, yet for all the fucking hype, it all comes down to two companies: OpenAI, and, of course, NVIDIA.”
Our reading: Generative AI was always set up to fail because it was oversold, and it all comes down to OpenAI and NVIDIA.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“OpenAI is the generative AI industry — and it’s a dog of a company.”
Our reading: OpenAI is the generative AI industry, and it is a dog of a company.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Members of the media, I am begging you, stop doing this.”
Our reading: The media should stop repeating claims that AI is replacing software engineers without checking them.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“This is nothing like anything you’ve seen before, because this is the dumbest shit that the tech industry has ever done.”
Our reading: The AI bubble is unlike previous bubbles and is the dumbest thing the tech industry has done.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The conservative estimate of capital expenditures related to data centers is around $400 billion, but given the $50 billion a quarter in private credit, I’m going to guess it breaks $500 billion, all to build capacity for an industry yet to prove itself.”
Our reading: Given $50 billion a quarter in private credit, he guesses that data-center-related capital expenditures break $500 billion, above a conservative estimate of around $400 billion, all to build capacity for an industry yet to prove itself.
No horizon
Qualifier: his guess
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“In a very real sense, OpenAI threatens the future of available capital for the tech industry.”
Our reading: OpenAI threatens the future availability of capital for the tech industry.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Anyway, I cannot be clear enough how unlikely it is that (as NVIDIA has said) “the first gigawatt of NVIDIA systems will be deployed in the second half of 2026,” and that’s if it has bought the land and got the permits and ordered the construction, none of which has happened yet.”
Our reading: It is very unlikely that the first gigawatt of NVIDIA systems for OpenAI will be deployed in the second half of 2026.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“The only reason anyone humours any of this crap is the endless hoarding of GPUs to build capacity for a revolution that will never arrive.”
Our reading: The AI revolution that GPU hoarding is building capacity for will never arrive.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“This NVIDIA deal is a farce — an obvious attempt by the largest company on the American stock market to prop up the one significant revenue-generator in the entire industry, knowing that time is running out for it to create new avenues for eternal growth.”
Our reading: The NVIDIA-OpenAI deal is a farce, an obvious attempt by NVIDIA to prop up OpenAI, the industry's one significant revenue-generator, knowing that time is running out for it to create new avenues for eternal growth.
No horizon
Held from this post (8)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: Nobody appears to be able to prove that AI is replacing workers.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: By his estimate, generative AI generates about $44 billion in revenue in 2025, and all the companies involved lose large amounts of money.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently