Sincerity Wins The War
We recorded 8 claims from this post. 8 can’t be checked. 3 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (8)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“suffice it to say that it’s highly doubtful that the military is going to rely on an LLM that hallucinates a significant portion of the time.”
Our reading: It is highly doubtful that the US military will rely on an LLM that hallucinates a significant portion of the time, such as Meta's Llama in the Anduril helmet.
No horizon
Qualifier: LLMs hallucinate a significant portion of the time
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“These scare tactics exist to do one thing: increase the value of companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, Microsoft, Salesforce, and anybody else outright lying about how “agents” will do our jobs, and to make it easier for the startups making these models to raise funds”
Our reading: AI job-loss scare tactics exist to do one thing: raise the value of Anthropic, OpenAI, Microsoft, Salesforce and others who are outright lying about agents doing our jobs, and make it easier for AI model startups to raise funds.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Let’s be real: none of this is transformative.”
Our reading: None of the generative AI uses he just listed (transcription, translation, video editing, summarising, coding help, chatbots) is transformative.
No horizon
Scope: the uses just discussed
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“while this might affect entry-level software engineers at some point”
Our reading: LLM coding tools might affect entry-level software engineering jobs at some point.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“But the intention is to frame these models as “powerful” and to use the term “agents” to make this technology seem bigger than it is, and the people that control those terms are the AI companies themselves.”
Our reading: The intention behind calling these models 'powerful' and using the term 'agents' is to make the technology seem bigger than it is, and the AI companies themselves control those terms.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“It’s a disgrace, and I believe it either creates distrust in the media or drives people insane as they look at reality - where generative AI doesn’t really seem to be doing much - and get told something entirely different by the media.”
Our reading: In reality generative AI does not seem to be doing much, despite what the media says.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“What’s crazy to me is that many of the problems with the AI bubble — as with the metaverse, as with the return to office, as with inflation and price gouging — are obvious if you actually use the things or participate in reality, but such things do not always fit with the editorial message.”
Our reading: Many of the problems with the AI bubble are obvious if you actually use the products or participate in reality, but they do not always fit the editorial message.
No horizon
Scope: many of
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“By not saying how unlikely it is — again, without even saying the word “unlikely,” but allowing the audience to come to that conclusion by having the whole story — you give the audience the truth.”
Our reading: It is unlikely that acquiring Jony Ive's hardware startup will add $1 trillion in market value to OpenAI, as Sam Altman claimed.
No horizon
Held from this post (3)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.