Reality Check
We recorded 10 claims from this post. 10 can’t be checked. 9 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (10)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“In fact, I think we have reason to worry about whether OpenAI even makes its current projections.”
Our reading: OpenAI may fail to meet its current 2025 revenue projections.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Yes there is a degree here of marketing, of partnerships, of word of mouth, of some degree of utility, but remove the non-stop free media campaign and ChatGPT would've peetered out by now along with this stupid fucking bubble.”
Our reading: ChatGPT's popularity is mainly due to nonstop media coverage; without it, ChatGPT and the AI bubble would have petered out.
No horizon
Qualifier: absent non-stop media coverage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Generative AI has never had the kind of meaningful business returns or utility that actually underpins something meaningful, but it has enough to make people give it a try.”
Our reading: Generative AI has never had the kind of meaningful business returns or utility that underpins something meaningful, but it has enough to make people give it a try.
No horizon
Qualifier: the kind that underpins something meaningful
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Generative AI is a remarkable con — a just-good-enough simulacrum of human expression to get it past the gatekeepers in finance and the media, knowing that neither will apply a second gear of critical thinking beyond "huh guess we're doing AI now."”
Our reading: Generative AI is a con that passes just well enough to fool finance and the media.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“With all its data and all its talent, Google has put the laziest version of a Large Language Model on top of a questionably-functional search product as a means of impressing shareholders.”
Our reading: Despite all its data and talent, Google has put the laziest version of a Large Language Model on top of a questionably-functional search product as a means of impressing shareholders.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“None of this ever resembled "artificial general intelligence," and if I'm honest, very little of it seems to even suggest it's a functional industry.”
Our reading: Generative AI has never resembled AGI and barely suggests a functional industry.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“These companies don't care about your safety and they don't have any way to get to AGI.”
Our reading: OpenAI and Anthropic don't care about your safety and don't have any way to get to AGI.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Oh, By The Way, The Bubble Might Be Bursting”
Our reading: The generative AI bubble might be bursting.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If Amazon is only making $5 billion in revenue from the literal only shiny new thing it has, sold on the world's premier cloud platform, at a time when businesses are hungry and desperate to integrate AI, then there's little chance this suddenly turns into a remarkable revenue-driver.”
Our reading: If Amazon is only making $5 billion in revenue from AI, its only shiny new thing, sold on the world's premier cloud platform while businesses are desperate to integrate AI, there is little chance Amazon's AI business suddenly turns into a remarkable revenue driver.
No horizon
Only if: if Amazon is only making $5 billion in revenue from AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The longer this bubble inflates - the longer everybody pretends - the worse the consequences will be.”
Our reading: The longer the AI bubble keeps inflating, the worse the consequences of its collapse will be.
No horizon
Qualifier: the longer the bubble inflates
Held from this post (9)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: Microsoft appears to have pulled back further on data center leasing, and Zitron reads this to mean it is not getting the demand for generative AI.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently