Put Up Or Shut Up
We recorded 12 claims from this post. 12 can’t be checked. 5 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (12)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“I feel like the tech industry is currently in the midst of the most bizarre cognitive dissonance I've ever seen — more so than the metaverse, even — as company after company simply lies about their intentions and the power of AI.”
Our reading: The author feels that the tech industry is in the most bizarre cognitive dissonance he has ever seen, as company after company simply lies about its intentions and the power of AI.
No horizon
Qualifier: I feel like
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“There was nothing behind this, just like so much of the AI hype — a bunch of specious statements and empty promises in a wrapper of innovation despite creating nothing in the process.”
Our reading: Much of the AI hype is specious statements and empty promises that create nothing.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“OpenAI is likely well aware that Large Language Models are incapable of reasoning, because Reuters reports that it’s got some sort of in-development model called Strawberry, which is designed to have human-like reasoning capabilities.”
Our reading: LLMs are incapable of reasoning, and OpenAI is likely aware of this.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I’d argue that the Bored Ape Yacht Club has a better chance of delivering, if only because “a blockchain game” would ostensibly use technology that exists.”
Our reading: The author would argue that the Bored Ape Yacht Club has a better chance of delivering its roadmap than OpenAI's Strawberry has of giving LLMs reasoning, if only because a blockchain game would ostensibly use technology that exists.
No horizon
Qualifier: I'd argue
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“other than the fact that OpenAI said it cared a lot about safety and only sort-of did, if it really cared at all, which I don't believe it does.”
Our reading: OpenAI does not really care about safety.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“We don't need a story telling us it kind-of-sort-of-rushed a product to market, even though it didn't actually do that, but that this company, on a cultural level, operates without regard for the safety of its users, and is deliberately misrepresenting to outlets like Bloomberg that it is somehow on the path to creating AGI.”
Our reading: OpenAI operates without regard for user safety and deliberately misrepresents that it is on the path to AGI.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“While there's tons of evidence that they're impossible to fix, surely a safety-minded culture would be one that sought to fix or mitigate the most obvious and dangerous problem of Large Language Models.”
Our reading: A safety-minded OpenAI should be investing in mitigating hallucinations.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“It claims it will "be trained on the best peer-reviewed science as well as Thrive's behavior change methodology," a mishmash of buzzwords and pseudoscientific pablum that means nothing because the company has produced no product and may likely never do so.”
Our reading: Thrive AI Health, the venture from the Thrive Global and OpenAI partnership, has produced no product and may likely never do so.
No horizon
Qualifier: may likely
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Generative AI's one real innovation is that it's allowed a certain class of scam artist to use the vague idea of "powerful automation" to hype companies to people that don't really know anything.”
Our reading: Generative AI's only real innovation is letting scam artists hype companies with vague promises of powerful automation.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“And it’s time for the media to start pushing back and asking for real, tangible evidence that anything is actually happening.”
Our reading: The media should push back on AI claims and demand real, tangible evidence.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“It’s time to treat OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta and any other company pushing generative AI with suspicion, to see their acts as an investor-approved act of deception, theft and destruction.”
Our reading: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta and other generative AI companies should be treated with suspicion as engaged in deception, theft and destruction.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“They’re not getting “reasoning,” nor are they getting “sentience,” nor are they “part of the path to superintelligence.””
Our reading: Generative AI models are not gaining reasoning or sentience and are not on the path to superintelligence.
No horizon
Held from this post (5)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.