Have We Reached Peak AI?
We recorded 12 claims from this post. 12 can’t be checked. 4 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (12)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The answer, of course, is that OpenAI has zero interest in talking to anyone in the film industry or any creators anywhere, and Murati should've been verbally flayed for suggesting otherwise.”
Our reading: OpenAI has no interest in consulting the film industry or creators about how it develops Sora.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“even though OpenAI's models continually prove themselves unable to match even the dumbest human beings alive.”
Our reading: OpenAI's models cannot match even the least capable humans.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Altman wants to talk about the big, sexy stories of Average General Intelligences that can take human jobs because the reality of OpenAI — and generative AI by extension — is far more boring, limited and expensive than he'd like you to know.”
Our reading: Altman talks up stories of general intelligences that can take human jobs because the reality of OpenAI, and of generative AI by extension, is far more boring, limited and expensive than he would like people to know.
No horizon
Scope: generative AI by extension
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“And I don't believe things are likely to improve.”
Our reading: Generative AI's limitations are unlikely to improve.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“I believe a large part of the artificial intelligence boom is hot air, pumped through a combination of executive bullshitting and a compliant media that will gladly write stories imagining what AI can do rather than focus on what it's actually doing.”
Our reading: Much of the AI boom is hype created by executives and a compliant media.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The media has been fooled, in the same way they were fooled by the metaverse, by the specious promises of AI and the executives that champion it.”
Our reading: The media has been fooled by the false promises of AI, as it was by the metaverse.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“I am, however, saying that if AI was actually capable of replacing the outputs of human beings — even if it was anywhere near doing so — any number of massive, scurrilous firms would be doing so at scale, and planning to do so more as models improved.”
Our reading: If AI were actually capable of replacing the outputs of human beings, or even anywhere near it, many massive firms would be doing so at scale and planning to do more as models improved.
No horizon
Only if: if AI were capable of, or anywhere near, replacing human outputs
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Yet his ultra-successful hype campaign was deeply specious, and he — along with the rest of the AI industry — has found himself suddenly having to deliver a future he's not even close to developing.”
Our reading: Altman and the AI industry are not close to delivering the future they hyped.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“What I fear isn't automation taking our jobs, but the bottom falling out of generative AI as companies realize that the best they're going to see is a few digits of profit growth.”
Our reading: The bottom may fall out of generative AI as companies realize it yields only small profit growth.
No horizon
Qualifier: as companies realize gains are small
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“If you focus on the present — what OpenAI's technology can do today, and will likely do for some time — you see in terrifying clarity that generative AI isn't a society-altering technology, but another form of efficiency-driving cloud computing software that benefits a relatively small niche of people.”
Our reading: Generative AI is not society-altering but niche efficiency software, and likely will remain so for some time.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“If you stop saying things like "AI could do" or "AI will do," you have to start asking what AI can do, and the answer is...not that much, and not much more in the future.”
Our reading: AI can do little today and will not do much more in the future.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I fear that the result could be a far worse year for the tech industry than we saw in 2023, one where the majority of the pain hits workers rather than the ghouls who inflated this perilous bubble.”
Our reading: The AI bubble's collapse could produce a far worse year for tech than 2023, with most pain falling on workers.
No horizon
Qualifier: as a result of the AI bubble popping
Held from this post (4)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: Within about three quarters of March 2024 (by the end of 2024), the AI boom would collapse in a way that savages the revenues of the biggest tech companies.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently