The Generative AI Con
We recorded 16 claims from this post. 16 can’t be checked. 9 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (16)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“It's been just over two years and two months since ChatGPT launched, and in that time we've seen Large Language Models (LLMs) blossom from a novel concept into one of the most craven cons of the 21st century — a cynical bubble inflated by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman built to sell into an economy run by people that have no concept of labor other than their desperation to exploit or replace it.”
Our reading: In the just over two years since ChatGPT launched, LLMs have gone from a novel concept to one of the most craven cons of the 21st century: a cynical bubble inflated by Sam Altman, built to sell into an economy run by people whose only idea of labor is a desperate wish to exploit or replace it.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“These numbers suggest that these products aren't very popular at all!”
Our reading: The January 2025 Similarweb monthly visitor numbers for Gemini, Copilot, Perplexity and Claude suggest that these products aren't very popular at all.
No horizon
Qualifier: these numbers suggest
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“And even then, we still don't have a killer app! There is no product that everybody loves, and there is no iPhone moment!”
Our reading: Generative AI has no killer app or iPhone moment despite massive investment.
No horizon
Qualifier: despite over $200bn hyperscaler capex and a third of VC investment
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“$3.25 billion a quarter is absolutely pathetic.”
Our reading: Microsoft's roughly $3.25 billion a quarter in AI revenue is absolutely pathetic.
No horizon
Qualifier: compared with $69.63bn quarterly revenue and $15.80bn capex
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“That may very likely mean Anthropic burned more money than OpenAI somehow last year! These companies are absolutely atrocious at business!”
Our reading: Anthropic very likely burned more money than OpenAI in 2024, and both are atrocious at business.
No horizon
Qualifier: per The Information figures
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“This is laughable on many levels, chief of which is that OpenAI, which made around twice as much revenue as Anthropic did in 2024, barely made a billion dollars from API calls in the same year.”
Our reading: Anthropic's projection that API revenue will hit $20 billion in 2027 is laughable on many levels, chiefly because OpenAI, which made about twice Anthropic's revenue in 2024, barely made a billion dollars from API calls that year.
No horizon
Qualifier: OpenAI barely made about $1bn from API calls in 2024
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Dario Amodei — much like Sam Altman — is a liar, a crook, a carnival barker and a charlatan, and the things he promises are equal parts ridiculous and offensive.”
Our reading: Dario Amodei, like Sam Altman, is a liar, a crook, a carnival barker and a charlatan, and the things he promises are equal parts ridiculous and offensive.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“When you put aside the hype and anecdotes, generative AI has languished in the same place, even in my kindest estimations, for several months, though it's really been years.”
Our reading: Putting aside the hype and anecdotes, generative AI has languished in the same place for several months even by his kindest estimate, though really for years.
No horizon
Qualifier: when you put aside the hype and anecdotes
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“To break this down, Altman is describing his next model — GPT 4.5 — as launching in some indeterminate timeframe and doing something probably quite similar to the current GPT 4o model.”
Our reading: GPT-4.5 will probably do something quite similar to GPT-4o.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“It’s quintessential LLM copy — soulless and almost, but not quite, right.”
Our reading: Deep Research's writing is quintessential LLM copy, soulless and almost, but not quite, right.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“OpenAI's next big thing is the ability to generate a report that you would likely not be able to use in any meaningful way anywhere, because while it can browse the web and find things and write a report, it sources things based on what it thinks can confirm its arguments rather than making sure the source material is valid or respectable.”
Our reading: Deep Research generates reports you would likely not be able to use in any meaningful way anywhere, because it sources material based on what it thinks confirms its arguments rather than making sure sources are valid or respectable.
No horizon
Qualifier: would likely not
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“These models don't know anything, and thus everything they do — even "reading" and "browsing" the web — is limited by their training data and probabilistic models that can say "this is an article about a subject" and posit their relevance, but not truly understand their contents.”
Our reading: Generative AI models know nothing and cannot truly understand the content they read or browse.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Deep Research repeatedly citing SEO-bait as a primary source proves that these models, even when grinding their gears as hard as humanely possible, are exceedingly mediocre, deeply untrustworthy, and ultimately useless.”
Our reading: Deep Research repeatedly citing SEO-bait as a primary source proves that these models, even when working as hard as possible, are exceedingly mediocre, deeply untrustworthy and ultimately useless.
No horizon
Qualifier: even when grinding their gears as hard as humanely possible
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Deep Research is the AI slop of academia — low-quality research-slop built for people that don't really care about quality or substance, and it’s not immediately obvious who it’s for.”
Our reading: Deep Research produces low-quality research slop with no clear audience.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“People like Marc Benioff claiming that "today's CEOs are the last to manage all-human workforces" are doing so to pump up their stocks rather than build anything approaching a real product.”
Our reading: Claims by CEOs like Benioff about AI replacing workforces are made to pump stocks, not reflecting real products.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Generative AI is a financial, ecological and social time bomb, and I believe that it's fundamentally damaging the relationship between the tech industry and society, while also shining a glaring, blinding light on the disconnection between the powerful and regular people.”
Our reading: Generative AI is a financial, ecological and social time bomb damaging tech's relationship with society.
No horizon
Held from this post (9)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- Attribution is uncertain
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: Similarweb traffic data does not appear consistent with OpenAI's claim of 300 million weekly ChatGPT users.
- The two reviews read the claim differently