Godot Isn't Making it
We recorded 33 claims from this post. 23 were checked against evidence. 10 can’t be checked. 22 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (33)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Causal claim
“Throughout these pieces I have repeatedly made the point that — separate to any lack of a core value proposition, training data drought, or unsustainable economics — generative AI is a dead end due to the limitations of probabilistic models that hallucinate, where they authoritatively state things that aren't true.”
Our reading: Generative AI is a dead end because probabilistic models hallucinate, stating false things authoritatively.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The theoretical definition of hallucination is broader than ordinary factual fabrication.
Assessment: MixedSaid
Observation
“The hallucination problem is one that is nowhere closer to being solved — and, at least with the current technology — may never go away, and it makes it a non-starter for a great many business tasks, where you need a high level of reliability.”
Our reading: The hallucination problem is nowhere closer to being solved, may never go away at least with current technology, and makes generative AI a non-starter for a great many business tasks that need high reliability.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The supporting finding concerns legal research and cannot establish the full breadth of great many.
Assessment: ContradictedSaid
Observation
“Generative AI's products have effectively been trapped in amber for over a year.”
Our reading: Generative AI products have not meaningfully progressed for over a year.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Meaningful progress requires an evaluator judgment.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Microsoft is cherry-picking a number based on non-specific criteria and claiming it's a big deal, when it's actually pretty pathetic considering its capital expenditures will likely hit over $60 billion in 2024.”
Our reading: Microsoft's capital expenditures will likely exceed $60 billion in 2024, making its $10B AI revenue run-rate pathetic.
No horizon
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Observation
“OpenAI currently spends $2.35 to make $1, and Microsoft CFO Amy Hood said that OpenAI would cut into Microsoft's profits this October, losing it a remarkable $1.5 billion, "mainly because of an expected loss from OpenAI" according to CNBC.”
Our reading: OpenAI currently spends $2.35 for every $1 of revenue it makes.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The figures were projections when published.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Causal claim
“Instead, big tech has found itself peddling increasingly-more-expensive iterations of near-identical Large Language Models — a direct result of them all having to use the same training data, which it’s now running out of.”
Our reading: Big tech's LLMs are increasingly expensive, near-identical iterations because they all use the same training data, which is running out.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The strongest specific support comes from reporting on anonymous sources.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Generative AI is incredibly unprofitable.”
Our reading: Generative AI is incredibly unprofitable.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The report does not establish sector-wide profitability or losses during the target period [e1].
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“OpenAI, the biggest player in the industry, is on course to lose more than $5 billion this year, with competitor Anthropic (which also makes its own transformer-based model, Claude) on course to lose more than $2.7 billion this year.”
Our reading: Anthropic is on course to lose more than $2.7 billion in 2024.
Deadline passed Evidence as of
Limitation: The contemporary report establishes a forecast, not its eventual realization or financial definition [e1].
Assessment: ContradictedSaid
Observation
“The entire tech industry has become oriented around a dead-end technology that requires burning billions of dollars to provide inessential products that cost them more money to serve than anybody would ever pay.”
Our reading: Generative AI is a dead-end technology whose inessential products cost more to serve than anyone would pay.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The decisive calculation uses reported financial figures rather than a publicly reproduced audited income statement.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“While one can dazzle investors with buzzwords and charts, the laws of physics are a far harsher mistress, and if NVIDIA is struggling mere months before the first installations are to begin, it's unclear how it practically launches this generation of chips, let alone continues its yearly cadence.”
Our reading: Given its cooling struggles, it is unclear NVIDIA can practically launch Blackwell, let alone maintain a yearly chip cadence.
No horizon
Only if: NVIDIA struggling with cooling months before installations
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“The fact that NVIDIA is having such significant difficulties with thermal performance is very, very bad.”
Our reading: It is very, very bad that NVIDIA is having such significant difficulties with thermal performance on its Blackwell racks.
No horizon
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If NVIDIA doesn’t solve its cooling problem — and solve it well — its customers will undoubtedly encounter thermal throttling, where the chip reduces speed in order to avoid causing permanent damage.”
Our reading: If NVIDIA does not solve Blackwell's cooling problem well, customers will encounter thermal throttling.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Only if: if NVIDIA doesn't solve its cooling problem well
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“While NVIDIA might be able to fix this problem in isolation within its racks, it remains to be seen how this works at scale as they ship and integrate hundreds of thousands of Blackwell GPUs starting in the front half of 2025.”
Our reading: Even if NVIDIA fixes cooling within its racks, it is uncertain the fix will work at scale as hundreds of thousands of Blackwell GPUs ship from H1 2025.
No horizon
Qualifier: at scale deployment
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Remember, the capital expenditures on generative AI and the associated infrastructure have gone over $200 billion in the last year.”
Our reading: Capital expenditures on generative AI and infrastructure exceeded $200 billion in the last year.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The disclosure covers one company and one quarter, not the industry over the contracted twelve-month period [e1].
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“While some have claimed that "agents are the next frontier," the reality is that agents may be the last generative AI product — multiple Large Language Models and integrations bouncing off of each other in an attempt to simulate what a human might do at a cost that won't be sustainable for the majority of businesses.”
Our reading: Agents may be the last generative AI product, and their cost won't be sustainable for most businesses.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“And worse still, nothing has really come out of this movement.”
Our reading: Nothing has really come out of the generative AI movement.
No horizon
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If we're truly at the diminishing returns stage of transformer-based models, it will be extremely difficult to justify buying further iterations of NVIDIA GPUs past Blackwell.”
Our reading: If transformer models are at diminishing returns, it will be extremely difficult to justify buying NVIDIA GPUs beyond Blackwell.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Only if: if transformer models are at diminishing returns
Assessment: ContradictedSaid
Forecast
“The models aren't going to get better.”
Our reading: Even with racks of Blackwell GPUs, generative AI models are not going to get better.
Settled before its deadline Evidence as of
Limitation: Company-reported evaluations, without independent replication of this comparison.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Sam Altman has grown rich and powerful lying about how GPT will somehow lead to AGI, but at this point, what exactly is OpenAI meant to do?”
Our reading: Sam Altman's claims that GPT will lead to AGI are lies.
No horizon
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“The constant refrain I hear from VCs and AI fantasists is that "chips will bring down the cost of inference," yet I don't see any proof of that happening, nor do I think it'll happen quickly enough for these companies to turn things around.”
Our reading: Chips will not bring down inference costs quickly enough for AI companies to turn their finances around.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Limitation: Benchmark throughput does not measure either company's production costs or separate hardware savings from software improvements.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Putting that aside, OpenAI is also a terrible business that has to burn $5 billion to make $3.4 billion, with no proof that it’s capable of bringing down costs.”
Our reading: OpenAI is a terrible business burning $5 billion to make $3.4 billion, with no proof it can reduce costs.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The packet contains no matched 2024 cash-flow and revenue accounts. CNBC had not inspected the underlying financial documents, and its reported loss estimate excluded some expenses [e1].
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“Even if OpenAI listens to its better angels, the reality still stands: ads won’t dam the rising tide of red ink that promises to eventually drown the company.”
Our reading: Advertising will not stop OpenAI's losses, which will eventually drown the company.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Limitation: Post-launch financial evidence is secondary reporting about private accounts.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Even if he ultimately fails, should Musk manage to drag the process out, or delay it temporarily, it could strike a terminal blow for OpenAI.”
Our reading: If Musk delays OpenAI's for-profit conversion, it could be a terminal blow for OpenAI.
No horizon
Only if: if Musk delays OpenAI's for-profit conversion
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Outside of a miracle, we are about to enter an era of desperation in the generative AI space.”
Our reading: Barring a miracle, the generative AI industry is about to enter an era of desperation.
No horizon
Qualifier: outside of a miracle
Assessment: ContradictedSaid
Forecast
“The products aren't coming.”
Our reading: Meaningful generative AI products are not coming.
Settled before its deadline Evidence as of
Limitation: The decisive adoption and customer evidence is vendor-published.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“"Orion," OpenAI's next model, will underwhelm, as will its competitors' models, and at some point somebody is going to blink in one of the hyperscalers, and the AI era will be over.”
Our reading: At some point a hyperscaler will pull back and the AI era will end.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Limitation: Investment guidance is not realized spending.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“The revenue isn't coming.”
Our reading: The revenue expected from generative AI is not coming.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Limitation: The ordinary contextual reading adds a comparison with investment expectations that Zitron did not quantify.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Once the AI bubble pops, there are no other hyper-growth markets left, which will in turn lead to a bloodbath in big tech stocks as they realize that they’re out of big ideas to convince the street that they’re going to grow forever.”
Our reading: When the AI bubble pops, the lack of other hyper-growth markets will cause a bloodbath in big tech stocks.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Only if: once the AI bubble pops
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“There is no iPhone moment coming, I'm afraid.”
Our reading: Generative AI will not have a transformative iPhone moment.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Limitation: The analogy requires judgment even with strong adoption data.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Generative AI isn’t a revolution, it’s an evolution of a tech industry overtaken by growth-hungry management consultant types that neither know the problems that real people face nor how to fix them.”
Our reading: Generative AI is not a revolution but a product of a growth-obsessed tech industry.
No horizon
Assessment: ContradictedSaid
Observation
“I also want to be clear that none of these companies ever had a plan.”
Our reading: None of the big AI companies ever had a plan for generative AI beyond throwing GPUs at it.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: This verdict addresses the existence of concrete plans, not their quality or financial viability.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“And before then, you’re going to get a lot of desperate stories about how “AI gains can be found outside of training new models” to try and keep the party going, despite reality flicking the lights on and off and threatening to call the police.”
Our reading: Before hyperscalers pull back, there will be many desperate stories claiming AI gains can come from outside training new models.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Limitation: Two verified examples are not a systematic record establishing the quantity described as 'a lot'.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“I believe all of this is going nowhere, and that at some point Google, Microsoft, or Meta is going to blink and pull back on their capital expenditures.”
Our reading: Generative AI is going nowhere, and at some point Google, Microsoft or Meta will pull back on AI capital expenditures.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Limitation: A broader reading of pullback could count the reported Microsoft cancellations.
Held from this post (22)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: Zitron hypothesizes that if OpenAI and Anthropic start charging what they actually need to, their customers' costs will multiply to the point that the customers can't afford to run their businesses or, at the very least, will have to remove or scale back generative AI functionality.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: If OpenAI's $6.6bn investment converts to debt, interest would massively raise its cash burn and make further investment hard to obtain.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: Transformer-based generative AI has peaked, with diminishing returns from more data and compute suggesting we may have reached Peak AI.
- Attribution is uncertain
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: ChatGPT loses OpenAI money on every prompt, and there is little evidence of widespread adoption of generative AI software.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: Almost every well-known generative AI company is deeply unprofitable, and few innovations will save them from atrophying foundation models.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: OpenAI and Anthropic run unprofitable businesses and likely charge nowhere near enough to cover their costs.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: NVIDIA will keep making money selling sold-out Blackwell GPUs for now, but manufacturing or cooling issues will likely be costly.