Four Horsemen of the AIpocalypse
We recorded 12 claims from this post. 12 can’t be checked. 7 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (12)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Let’s start with a fairly direct statement: Anthropic should stop taking on new customers until it works out its capacity issues.”
Our reading: Anthropic should stop accepting new customers until it resolves its capacity issues.
No horizon
Qualifier: until it resolves its capacity issues
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“We’re likely hitting the absolute physical limits of available AI compute capacity, if we haven’t already done so”
Our reading: The AI industry is likely hitting, or has already hit, the physical limits of available AI compute capacity.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Anthropic is a con, and said con is only made possible through endless, specious hype.”
Our reading: Anthropic is a con sustained by hype.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“These deals shouldn’t be legal.”
Our reading: Deals like Anthropic's agreement to spend $100 billion on AWS as part of Amazon's investment in it should not be legal.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“A flat 10% bump on the cost of software engineering is the direct opposite of what AI was meant to do, and in the event that costs continue to rise, I’m not sure how anybody justifies the expense much further.”
Our reading: A flat 10% increase in software engineering costs is the direct opposite of what AI was meant to do, and if costs continue to rise he is not sure how anybody justifies the expense much further.
No horizon
Only if: in the event that costs continue to rise
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Companies did this to grow their subscriber numbers, and I think they assumed things would get cheaper somehow.”
Our reading: AI companies subsidized subscriptions to grow their subscriber numbers, and he thinks they assumed things would somehow get cheaper.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“I’ve literally never seen a company do this outside of products it intended to kill entirely, and that’s likely because — per my source — it intends to move paid customers over to token-based-billing”
Our reading: Microsoft's halt to new paid GitHub Copilot signups is likely because, per his source, it intends to move paid customers to token-based billing.
No horizon
Qualifier: per my source
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Though Microsoft is yet to formally announce the move to Token-Based Billing, I imagine it’ll be sometime this week that it rips off the bandage.”
Our reading: Microsoft will probably formally announce token-based billing for GitHub Copilot this week.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Though my arguments might be verbose, they’re ultimately pretty simple: AI does not provide even an iota of the benefits — economic or otherwise — to justify its ruinous costs.”
Our reading: AI does not provide even an iota of the benefits, economic or otherwise, that would justify its ruinous costs.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Cursor is also reportedly at $6 billion in annualized revenue (or around $500 million a month) and “gross margin positive” — which I also doubt given that it had to raise over $3 billion last year and is apparently raising another $2 billion this year.”
Our reading: Cursor is probably not gross margin positive as reported.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“If, in fact, NVIDIA is actually selling as many GPUs as it says, it’s likely taking liberties with “transfers of ownership” where NVIDIA marks a product as “sold” to somebody that has yet to actually take it on.”
Our reading: If NVIDIA is selling as many GPUs as it claims, it is likely booking sales before customers actually take delivery.
No horizon
Qualifier: if NVIDIA is selling as many GPUs as it says
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“But every sign points to me being right, and if I’m right at the scale I think I’m right, I think we’re about to have a legitimacy crisis in investing and mainstream media, because regular people are keenly aware that something isn’t right, in many cases, it’s because they’re able to count.”
Our reading: If he is right at the scale he thinks he is, he thinks investing and mainstream media are about to have a legitimacy crisis, because regular people are keenly aware that something isn't right.
No horizon
Only if: if I'm right at the scale I think I'm right
Held from this post (7)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: By the end of 2026, a majority of AI services will move some or all of their customers to token-based billing.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: The only way OpenAI and Anthropic can continue to exist is by raising endless venture capital or, assuming they make it to IPO, endless debt offerings or at-the-market stock sales.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently