Silicon Valley's False Prophet
We recorded 10 claims from this post. 10 can’t be checked. 2 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (10)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“The tech industry has craved a messiah since the death of Steve Jobs, but in OpenAI CEO Sam Altman they’ve discovered more of a false prophet — a seedy grifter that uses his remarkable ability to impress and manipulate Silicon Valley’s elite to mask a total lack of technical or business acumen.”
Our reading: Sam Altman is a false prophet who manipulates Silicon Valley's elite to hide a total lack of technical or business acumen.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“When Altman says something genuinely, truly insane — like how he wants to raise $7tn, which is the combined GDP of Germany and France, to build up a dedicated AI semiconductor manufacturing capacity — the response isn’t to immediately dismiss it with a chorus of derisive laughter, but to actually discuss it with a level of seriousness that isn’t even remotely warranted.”
Our reading: Altman's stated wish to raise $7tn to build dedicated AI semiconductor manufacturing capacity is genuinely insane, and the serious discussion it gets, rather than dismissal, is not even remotely warranted.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“While there are genuine safety issues with artificial intelligence to consider, these people are desperately afraid of the computer coming alive and killing them when they should fear the non-technical manipulator getting rich making egregious promises about what AI can actually do.”
Our reading: AI company insiders should worry less about AI coming alive and more about Altman getting rich on egregious promises about AI, though real AI safety issues exist.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Sam Altman is dangerous to artificial intelligence not because he’s building artificial general intelligence — a kind of AI that meets or surpasses human cognitive capabilities, and potentially mimics human sentience, a bit like Data from Star Trek: The Next Generation — but because Sam Altman’s focus is on what Sam Altman can build to grow the power and influence of Sam Altman.”
Our reading: Altman is dangerous to artificial intelligence not because he is building AGI but because his focus is on what he can build to grow his own power and influence.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“And I’d argue that this is exceedingly dangerous for Silicon Valley and the tech industry writ large as executives disconnected from the process of creating software follow another non-technical founder hocking unprofitable, unsustainable and hallucination-prone software.”
Our reading: He argues that Altman pushing OpenAI to sell into as many industries as possible is exceedingly dangerous for Silicon Valley and the wider tech industry, as executives disconnected from creating software follow another non-technical founder hawking unprofitable, unsustainable, hallucination-prone software.
No horizon
Qualifier: I'd argue
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Altman has taken advantage of the fact that the tech industry might not have any hyper-growth markets left, knowing that ChatGPT is, much like Altman, incredibly adept at mimicking depth and experience by parroting the experiences of those who have actually done things.”
Our reading: ChatGPT mimics depth and experience by parroting others, and Altman exploits a tech industry that may have no hyper-growth markets left.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“While ChatGPT isn’t inherently useless, Altman realizes that it’s impossible to generate the kind of funding and hype he needs based on its actual achievements, and that to continue to accumulate power and money, he must speciously hype it to wealthy and powerful people who don’t participate in the creation of anything.”
Our reading: ChatGPT isn't inherently useless, but Altman realizes that its actual achievements cannot generate the funding and hype he needs, and that to keep accumulating power and money he must speciously hype it to wealthy, powerful people who don't create anything.
No horizon
Qualifier: to continue to accumulate power and money
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“The tech industry has spent years pissing off customers, with platforms like Facebook and Google actively making their products less useful in the pursuit of perpetual growth, unashamedly turning their backs on the people that made them rich and acting with such contempt for users that I truly believe society will turn on the tech industry.”
Our reading: Society will turn on the tech industry because of its contempt for users.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“My hope is that venture capital finally learns to back companies that make a profit building software and hardware that actually helps people.”
Our reading: Venture capital should back companies that make a profit building software and hardware that actually helps people.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“It won’t, however, be the apocalypse. It’ll just be a brutal realignment for an industry that has needed one.”
Our reading: When the deck of cards collapses, it will not be an apocalypse but just a brutal realignment for a tech industry that has needed one.
No horizon
Only if: when the deck of cards collapses
Held from this post (2)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: Google Search is still plagued with nonsensical AI answers that sometimes steal others' work, and AI legal research tools sold to firms regularly hallucinate, a problem impossible to fix, yet this doesn't matter because AI is the new thing that can be sold to the markets.