CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb
We recorded 14 claims from this post. 14 can’t be checked. 5 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (14)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Furthermore, CoreWeave's underlying financials are so dramatically unstable that it's unclear how this company will last the next six months.”
Our reading: CoreWeave's financials are so unstable that it is unclear whether it will survive the next six months.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Put simply, this dependence on a handful of hyperscalers represents a fundamental — and potentially fatal — vulnerability.”
Our reading: CoreWeave's dependence on a few hyperscalers is a fundamental and potentially fatal vulnerability.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Which makes sense, because the chances of Microsoft or Meta becoming insolvent in the immediate future are slim, whereas OpenAI’s entire existence depends on its ability to raise more money than any startup in history, indefinitely, while also never making a profit.”
Our reading: OpenAI's entire existence depends on its ability to raise more money than any startup in history, indefinitely, while never making a profit, whereas Microsoft or Meta are unlikely to become insolvent in the immediate future.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“And, as readers of this newsletter will know, I don’t rate its chances.”
Our reading: OpenAI is unlikely to sustain its ability to keep raising money indefinitely and survive.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“For the sake of both your and my sanity, I'm going to focus on just these loans, as I believe they are, on their own, enough to potentially destroy CoreWeave.”
Our reading: CoreWeave's two DDTL loans alone could potentially destroy the company.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“These mob-like terms suggest Blackstone and Magnetar don't necessarily trust CoreWeave to survive, and intend to rip out whatever guts are left if it doesn't.”
Our reading: The DDTL 2.0 loan terms suggest Blackstone and Magnetar don't necessarily trust CoreWeave to survive and intend to rip out whatever guts are left if it doesn't.
No horizon
Qualifier: terms 'suggest'
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Regardless, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where its debt repayments surpass its entire 2024 revenue.”
Our reading: CoreWeave's debt repayments could surpass its entire 2024 revenue.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“And given that the company recently exited Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, it’s unlikely to receive capital on favorable terms.”
Our reading: Core Scientific is unlikely to raise capital on favorable terms after its recent bankruptcy.
No horizon
Qualifier: having recently exited Chapter 11
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“If generative AI had this incredible demand — both from companies looking to integrate it and users looking to use it — CoreWeave would be making far, far more money, have a far more diverse customer base, and, if I'm honest, not have to take out more than five times its revenue in burdensome loans with loan shark-level interest rates.”
Our reading: If generative AI had incredible demand from both companies and users, CoreWeave would be making far, far more money, have a far more diverse customer base, and not need to take out more than five times its revenue in burdensome loans at loan shark-level interest rates.
No horizon
Only if: if generative AI had this incredible demand from companies and users
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“In reality, this company is a dog, and will show the markets exactly how little money or growth is left in generative AI.”
Our reading: CoreWeave is a dog and will show the markets exactly how little money or growth is left in generative AI.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“NVIDIA's remarkable GPU sales have been conflated with the success of generative AI, rather than seen as a sign of desperation, and a signal of how willing big tech is to spend billions of dollars on something if they think their competition is doing so.”
Our reading: NVIDIA's GPU sales reflect big tech's competitive desperation rather than generative AI's success.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“As I hypothesized a few weeks ago, I believe that outside of OpenAI, the generative AI industry is terribly small, a point that CoreWeave only underlines.”
Our reading: The author believes, as he hypothesized a few weeks earlier, that outside of OpenAI the generative AI industry is terribly small, a point CoreWeave underlines.
No horizon
Scope: outside of OpenAI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“While I can only hypothesize, I believe that this move is Microsoft's attempt to disconnect from OpenAI, dumping its exclusive relationship and canceling its own capacity expansion along with contracts with CoreWeave”
Our reading: The author hypothesizes that Microsoft dropping its exclusive relationship with OpenAI and canceling its own capacity expansion and CoreWeave contracts is an attempt to disconnect from OpenAI.
No horizon
Qualifier: I can only hypothesize, I believe
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“It doesn’t. And I think we’re about to see what happens when the world’s biggest startup becomes desperate.”
Our reading: The author thinks we are about to see what happens when OpenAI, the world's biggest startup, becomes desperate.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Held from this post (5)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.