Burst Damage
We recorded 21 claims from this post. 21 can’t be checked. 8 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (21)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The reason I’m not breaking things out much is because Google has been extremely guarded about its AI expenses. Probably because they’re really high and not making them any money.”
Our reading: Google's AI expenses are probably very high and are not making Google any money.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Even with $150m in funding — which is a decent amount of capital — Character.ai likely couldn’t keep the lights on for very long, thus necessitating its absorption by a larger company.”
Our reading: Character.ai likely could not have survived long on $150m in funding, so it had to be absorbed, which shows many generative AI applications are unsustainable.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“It's entirely possible that this flaw takes more than three months to resolve.”
Our reading: The Blackwell design flaw may take more than three months to fix.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“With Blackwell representing a major leap forward in capabilities (both in terms of power efficiency and sheer compute power), this is undoubtedly a massive blow to OpenAI, as well as its competitors. On a basic level, this might delay some of OpenAI’s grander ambitions for an indeterminate time.”
Our reading: The Blackwell delay is a massive blow to OpenAI and its competitors, and may delay OpenAI's bigger plans for an indeterminate time.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“However, I believe that the collapse (or absorption) of OpenAI is the one critical sign to look for.”
Our reading: Zitron believes the collapse (or absorption) of OpenAI is the one critical sign to look for that the generative AI bubble is popping.
No horizon
Qualifier: I believe
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“These are stable, revenue-generating (yet unprofitable) ancillary players that likely will need to raise in the next 12 months.”
Our reading: Scale AI and Cohere are unprofitable and will likely need to raise money within 12 months.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“As I wrote last week, OpenAI needs to raise more money than anybody has ever raised in the next 12-24 months, or launch a product so significant that it blows ChatGPT out of the water — things that are unlikely, but possible.”
Our reading: OpenAI must raise a record amount of money within 12–24 months or launch a product far better than ChatGPT, and both outcomes are unlikely but possible.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If none of the major cloud companies — who are usually in lock-step with each other to keep their cartel-esque empires alive — change course over the next three months, we could potentially see this boom continue for another quarter.”
Our reading: If no major cloud company changes course in the next three months, the AI boom could continue for another quarter.
No horizon
Only if: if no major cloud company changes course over the next three months
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If generative AI becomes an albatross around the necks of Google, or Microsoft, or Amazon — which I believe it will — these companies will face serious pressure to curtail their investments and their capex spending.”
Our reading: If generative AI becomes an albatross around the necks of Google, Microsoft, or Amazon (which Zitron believes it will), these companies will face serious pressure to curtail their investments and capital expenditures.
No horizon Evidence as of
Only if: generative AI becomes an albatross around the necks of Google, or Microsoft, or Amazon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“In any case, I believe the next month will be critical to the future of the artificial intelligence boom.”
Our reading: The month after August 5, 2024 will be critical to the future of the AI boom.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“While there is a chance we get one more round — a last gasp — it’s honestly a little tough to imagine how it keeps going even if it raises another $10 billion.”
Our reading: There is a chance OpenAI gets one more funding round, a last gasp, but it is a little tough to imagine how it keeps going even if it raises another $10 billion.
No horizon
Qualifier: there is a chance
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If I had to guess, Anthropic’s most likely home would be with Amazon, which completed its $4bn investment into the company earlier this year.”
Our reading: If Anthropic is absorbed by a big tech firm, Zitron guesses its most likely home would be Amazon.
No horizon
Only if: if Anthropic is absorbed by a big tech firm
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Raising a round for a generative AI company in this market is likely going to be difficult, if not impossible.”
Our reading: In the current market, generative AI companies will likely find raising money difficult or impossible.
No horizon
Qualifier: in this market
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Sam Altman doesn’t care about AI either. He cares about accumulating power, has been doing so for years, and will be back with another con within three years.”
Our reading: Sam Altman doesn't care about AI; he cares about accumulating power, has been doing so for years, and will be back with another con within three years.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“There is no magic, no whimsy, no joy in any of these Large Language Models and their associated outgrowths. They're not helping anybody, yet their peddlers demand our fealty and our applause.”
Our reading: Large language models and their associated outgrowths are not helping anybody.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Fire Satya Nadella, fire Sundar Pichai, and work out a way to fire Mark Zuckerberg.”
Our reading: Satya Nadella, Sundar Pichai, and Mark Zuckerberg should be fired.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I have no idea how quickly the shift comes, but it is inevitable that this lack of big, profitable ideas leads to some form of collapse in big tech.”
Our reading: Big tech's lack of big, profitable ideas will inevitably lead to some form of collapse, timing unknown.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The point I’m making is that whatever estimates we have about what these companies have spent on generative AI is probably wrong by tens of billions of dollars, and the only real reliable (ish) indicator is CapEx spending, and what’s publicly reported whenever these companies make a new investment.”
Our reading: Public estimates of big tech's generative AI spending are probably wrong by tens of billions of dollars.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“These men do not care about their customers, they do not face true competition, and the government should break every single hyper scaler up — Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple, and Oracle, and find ways to stop them ever growing so large in the future.”
Our reading: The government should break up every hyperscaler (Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple, Oracle) and stop them from growing so large again.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Sundar Pichai and Satya Nadella must go.”
Our reading: Sundar Pichai and Satya Nadella must be removed as CEOs.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“And it’s changing. The narrative is changing. And soon it will shift more aggressively and violently against big tech, and this is a great thing for the world, and ultimately the tech industry at large.”
Our reading: The narrative will soon turn more aggressively against big tech.
No horizon
Held from this post (8)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: As these companies get desperate, someone, especially OpenAI, can be expected to try to show something 'new and crazy' as a means of trying to turn the narrative.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: Zitron believes generative AI will become an albatross around the necks of Google, Microsoft or Amazon, and if it does, these companies will face serious pressure to curtail their investments and capex spending.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently