AI's Brokenomics
We recorded 20 claims from this post. 20 can’t be checked. 7 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (20)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Fable is, of course, just another large language model that’s an indeterminate amount of “better” than the last one.”
Our reading: Anthropic's Fable is just another large language model only an indeterminate amount better than its predecessor.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The outright mythology of Mythos existed to scare people and help Anthropic raise at a $965 billion valuation”
Our reading: Anthropic's Mythos marketing existed to scare people and help Anthropic raise money at a $965 billion valuation.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Some are attempting to read this story as bullish for Anthropic — that the government will work with it to bring the models back online, creating a proxy marketing campaign for its models — and while I think that’s possible, if not likely, I think there’re many other possibilities.”
Our reading: It is possible, if not likely, that the US government will work with Anthropic to bring its models back online, in effect creating a proxy marketing campaign for them, though there are many other possibilities.
No horizon
Qualifier: possible, if not likely
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“This, combined with Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman saying Anthropic’s models were too expensive and Andy Jassy likely being part of the reason that Anthropic got banned makes me think that hyperscalers might be trying to cast doubt on the inevitability of AI labs.”
Our reading: Hyperscalers such as Microsoft and Amazon may be trying to cast doubt on the inevitability of AI labs.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“It’s hard to see how everything goes back to normal from here. Even if Anthropic gets its models greenlit for availability, it’s clear the government has some animus against it after Q1’s battle with the Department of Defense”
Our reading: It is unlikely Anthropic's situation goes back to normal, since the government has animus against it even if its models are re-approved.
No horizon
Qualifier: even if Anthropic gets its models greenlit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The other problem is that this is terrible, terrible timing for an AI industry in the throes of a cost crisis. Anthropic and OpenAI’s IPOs depend on myth, hype, and certainty that their growth will never slow.”
Our reading: The AI industry is in a cost crisis, and Anthropic's and OpenAI's IPOs depend on hype and certainty of never-slowing growth.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Amazon and Microsoft are far more scared of the White House than they are of killing their golden goose, and may honestly be relieved to find a reason to bring this era to an end.”
Our reading: Amazon and Microsoft fear the White House more than losing AI labs and may be relieved to end this era.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“A 50% price cut doesn’t actually answer the question of “why am I paying so much for this,” and unless the price cuts are to DeepSeek levels (which would also be fatal), it’s hard to see how organizations are going to be won over.”
Our reading: A 50% price cut does not answer customers' question of why they are paying so much, and unless the price cuts go as low as DeepSeek levels, which would also be fatal, it is hard to see how organizations will be won over.
No horizon
Only if: unless the price cuts go as low as DeepSeek levels
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“This means that there’s every chance this both cuts revenues and ends up with organizations using fewer tokens.”
Our reading: If the token price cuts happen, there is every chance they will both cut the AI labs' revenues and lead organizations to use fewer tokens.
No horizon
Only if: if the token price cuts happen
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“In fact, their costs appear to be increasing, which is why they’ve raised (assuming the rounds completely close) over $230 billion in the last six months.”
Our reading: OpenAI's and Anthropic's costs appear to be increasing, which is why they have raised over $230 billion in the last six months, assuming the rounds completely close.
No horizon
Qualifier: assuming the rounds completely close
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“This obscene and wasteful subsidy is what you do when you have little to no confidence in the actual value of your product!”
Our reading: OpenAI's and Anthropic's obscene and wasteful subscription subsidies are what a company does when it has little to no confidence in the actual value of its product.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“This isn’t a real business model because generative AI companies are not real businesses.”
Our reading: Generative AI companies are not real businesses.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again: I believe a large majority of AI token spend — and specifically Anthropic’s revenue growth — has come from Business Idiots disconnected from any real work that have become convinced that “lots of AI” would do something other than rack up massive bills.”
Our reading: He believes a large majority of AI token spend, and specifically Anthropic's revenue growth, has come from 'Business Idiots' disconnected from any real work who became convinced that 'lots of AI' would do something other than rack up massive bills.
No horizon
Qualifier: I believe
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I am still skeptical that this is a real shift away, if only because using open source models requires you to either work with an inference provider or run your own GPUs.”
Our reading: It is doubtful there is a real enterprise shift away from frontier models to open-source models.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The fact that Anthropic and OpenAI have any business left after stories like these is proof that the vast majority of companies paying for these services are doing so because they feel pressured to by their peers, investors or the media.”
Our reading: That Anthropic and OpenAI have any business left after stories like these is proof that the vast majority of companies paying for their services do so because they feel pressured by peers, investors or the media.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Hell, let’s take it one step further: neither OpenAI nor Anthropic is a real business.”
Our reading: Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic is a real business.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“it’s becoming clear that token-based billing might genuinely not work as a viable business line.”
Our reading: Token-based billing may not work as a viable business line for AI labs.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“They do not have a plan.”
Our reading: OpenAI and Anthropic have no plan to become profitable.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“I agree with anyone saying there should be a pause in the development of generative AI, but I do so based on the belief that this is a doomed grift and science experiment masquerading as an industry”
Our reading: There should be a pause in the development of generative AI, because it is a doomed grift masquerading as an industry.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Anthropic and OpenAI represent what I believe may be the last hypergrowth startups, and their collapse (however it may happen) will represent the end of the dream of founding a little company that turns into the next Google or Meta.”
Our reading: He believes Anthropic and OpenAI may be the last hypergrowth startups, and their collapse, however it happens, will represent the end of the dream of founding a little company that becomes the next Google or Meta.
No horizon
Qualifier: what I believe may be
Held from this post (7)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.