Annualized Enron Rate
We recorded 12 claims from this post. 12 can’t be checked. 6 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (12)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“The entire AI bubble is inflated based on stupid, made up numbers that only exist to pump the bags of investors and make the AI startups look more successful than they are.”
Our reading: The entire AI bubble is inflated based on made-up numbers that exist only to pump investors' holdings and make AI startups look more successful than they are.
No horizon
Scope: the entire AI bubble
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“There is absolutely no value in using “annualized run rates” for anyone other than the company and its investors, and the fact that modern tech and business journalism continues to accept it for what are meant to be the largest and most-important companies in the world is a sign that something is very wrong with how we cover the tech industry.”
Our reading: Annualized run rates have absolutely no value for anyone other than the company and its investors, and tech and business journalism's continued acceptance of them for the largest companies is a sign that something is very wrong with tech coverage.
No horizon
Scope: for anyone other than the company and its investors
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I must also say how utterly disappointed I was to see how Bloomberg credulously reported that OpenAI “expected to hit $70 billion in annualized revenue by end of 2026,” a transparent attempt to send the markets back up with a story that tells the world less than nothing.”
Our reading: OpenAI's projection of $70 billion annualized revenue by end of 2026, credulously reported by Bloomberg, was a transparent attempt to lift markets and conveys no information.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Reporting “run rates” is a marketing exercise, and if you disagree, please answer me the following: what does a “$65 billion annualized run rate” tell you about Anthropic, exactly?”
Our reading: Reporting run rates, such as Anthropic's '$65 billion annualized run rate', is a marketing exercise.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Investors are fucking stupid for using it.”
Our reading: Investors are stupid for using annualized run rates.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Let’s be clear about something: the reason we’re not getting these numbers is that these companies are not actually making these amounts on an annual basis.”
Our reading: AI startups withhold real revenue figures because they do not actually earn their claimed annualized amounts.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The problem — and the reason I’d argue that the actual revenues of these companies are so shrouded in secrecy — is that the underlying economics do not match up when you consider that effectively every AI startup has to resell tokens at a discount.”
Our reading: AI startups' revenues are kept secret because effectively every one must resell tokens at a discount, so the economics do not work.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“The obfuscation of the actual underlying financial of these companies is intentional, because it makes it harder to do the kinds of comparisons I’ve done today,”
Our reading: The obscuring of AI startups' actual underlying financials is intentional, because it makes the kinds of comparisons he made in the post harder to do.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“We are basing the vast majority of words written and billions invested in the AI bubble on assumptions built on assumptions built on assumptions, several of which fall apart when you ask simple questions like “how does that work?” or “how did you get that number?””
Our reading: The vast majority of words written and billions invested in the AI bubble rest on stacked assumptions, several of which fall apart when you ask simple questions such as how something works or how a number was derived.
No horizon
Scope: several of which
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“This is extremely bad and extremely important to resolve.”
Our reading: The lack of knowledge about AI companies' financial condition is very bad and should be resolved.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Most coverage of AI lives in its own bubble where nothing bad has happened or could happen, and that every promise will come true.”
Our reading: Most AI coverage lives in its own bubble in which nothing bad has happened or could happen and every promise will come true.
No horizon
Scope: most coverage of AI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“The AI bubble is inflated by bullshit numbers peddled by the ignorant, craven or easily-led. Your ability to distinguish between which of them you’re talking to is critical to not losing your shirt.”
Our reading: The AI bubble is inflated by bogus numbers pushed by the ignorant, the craven or the easily led, and being able to tell which of these you are talking to is critical to avoiding heavy losses.
No horizon
Held from this post (6)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: It appears that Anthropic counts every dollar of sales in its annualized run rate figure while OpenAI does not, and Zitron does not buy OpenAI's explanation that its approach is 'more ethical.'
- The two reviews read the claim differently