AI Is Slowing Down
We recorded 7 claims from this post. 1 was checked against evidence. 6 can’t be checked. 7 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (7)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Those excited about generative AI are either the victim or the perpetrator of a con centered around a technology to ingratiate at the highest cost possible.”
Our reading: Generative AI enthusiasm is the product of a con, and its enthusiasts are either its victims or its perpetrators.
No horizon
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“These funds will be insufficient to cover Anthropic’s costs, as will Anthropic’s cash flow, meaning that it will have to raise at least another $200 billion in the next year.”
Our reading: Because the funds Anthropic raised in early 2026 and its cash flow will not cover its costs, Anthropic will have to raise at least another $200 billion within a year of 2026-06-08.
Not yet due Evidence as of
Limitation: No outcome evidence was gathered, because the deadline has not passed.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“OpenAI expects to spend $50 billion on compute in 2026, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Anthropic spends anywhere from $30 billion to $50 billion.”
Our reading: Anthropic may spend $30 billion to $50 billion on compute in 2026.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Sidenote: Amazon and Meta barely have AI stories.”
Our reading: Amazon and Meta barely have AI stories.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“These are signs that AI’s revenue growth is slowing, and it’s likely going to slow further, because we currently live in an era where Anthropic and OpenAI are straight-up abusing its clients, providing limited-to-no visibility into spend, per the Wall Street Journal:”
Our reading: AI revenue growth will likely slow further, because Anthropic and OpenAI give customers little or no visibility into what they are spending.
No horizon
Qualifier: because Anthropic and OpenAI give customers little visibility into spend
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“I think that’s by design. AI labs want their costs to be high so that they can continue growing at ridiculous rates, all so that they can keep feeding money to their hyperscaler compute partners who then invest that money right back into them, creating further reasons to keep buying NVIDIA GPUs, so that NVIDIA can then invest that money back into either AI compute providers (who OpenAI and Anthropic pay) or the AI labs themselves.”
Our reading: He thinks it is by design that AI labs want their costs to be high, so they can keep growing fast and feeding money to hyperscaler compute partners, who invest it back into the labs and buy more NVIDIA GPUs, while NVIDIA in turn invests in compute providers or the labs.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“One of my sources has come forward and brought me a story that will possibly burst the AI bubble.”
Our reading: A story he expects to publish within two weeks may burst the AI bubble.
No horizon
Qualifier: once his upcoming story is published
Held from this post (7)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: If OpenAI or Anthropic sought profitability or sustainability (assuming either were possible), demand for AI compute would fall, reducing demand for Azure, Google Cloud, AWS, CoreWeave and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, and in turn for NVIDIA GPUs.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: 54% of NVIDIA's revenue comes from three clients, so NVIDIA's future largely depends on those three unnamed companies (likely Taiwanese ODMs building servers for Microsoft, Google and Meta) and on their counterparties' ability to keep raising debt almost indefinitely, as fewer firms can afford to buy thousands of $7.8 million Vera Rubin racks.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently