What if GPT-5 didn’t meet expectations?
We recorded 6 claims from this post. 6 can’t be checked. 1 more is held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (6)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Another theory is that OpenAI realized how expensive it would be either to train the model or to run it, and wasn’t sure they could make a profit given those costs. That still seems viable.”
Our reading: It is plausible that OpenAI was unsure it could profit from GPT-5 given training and inference costs.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“They might have decided that GPT-5, if it was simply a bigger version of GPT-4, would not meet expectations, and that it wasn’t worth spending the hundreds of millions of dollars required, if the outcome would only turn out to be disappointing, or even embarrassing.”
Our reading: OpenAI might have decided, perhaps after early proof-of-concept tests by May 2023, that GPT-5, if simply a bigger GPT-4, would not meet expectations and was not worth the hundreds of millions of dollars required if the outcome would be disappointing or embarrassing.
No horizon
Qualifier: if GPT-5 was simply a bigger version of GPT-4
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If Yann LeCun and I are correct, AI will need genuinely new paradigms to get to the next level in AI, and OpenAI may be no closer to that than anyone else.”
Our reading: If Marcus and LeCun are correct, AI will need genuinely new paradigms to get to the next level, and OpenAI may be no closer to that than anyone else.
No horizon
Only if: if Yann LeCun and Marcus are correct
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Few have risen as quickly, but there’s no guarantee that OpenAI can maintain their stratospheric trajectory.”
Our reading: OpenAI may not be able to maintain its rapid growth trajectory.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If GPT-5 did fail to please, or even if it were just deferred indefinitely (like so many promises that have been about driverless cars), it could have a rapid, deflationary effect on sky-high valuations.”
Our reading: If GPT-5 disappoints or is indefinitely deferred, AI valuations could deflate rapidly.
No horizon
Only if: if GPT-5 disappoints or is deferred indefinitely
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“People might even start to realize that building truly reliable, trustworthy AI is actually really, really hard.”
Our reading: If GPT-5 failed to please or were deferred indefinitely, people might even start to realize that building truly reliable, trustworthy AI is really, really hard.
No horizon
Only if: if GPT-5 failed to please or were deferred indefinitely
Held from this post (1)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.