Two takes on AI and the future of America
We recorded 8 claims from this post. 2 were checked against evidence. 6 can’t be checked. 2 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (8)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“And now, this morning, I read that even in coding, the flagship application of generate AI, trouble is brewing:”
Our reading: Trouble is brewing even in coding, the flagship application of generative AI.
No horizon
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Observation
“But many others have found that LLMs are not quite as advertised.”
Our reading: Many others have found that LLMs are not quite as good as advertised.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The advertising comparison is qualitative and supplied by interpretation.
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Observation
“This is in line with the July METR study showing that coding tools sometimes impair productivity rather than increasing it.”
Our reading: The July METR study showed that AI coding tools sometimes impair productivity rather than increase it.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The trial involved experienced developers working on familiar open-source projects.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Needless to say, the speculative America, buying chips and building data centers on the hope that it will pay off, is at odds with the growing disappointment.”
Our reading: Speculative US investment in chips and data centers conflicts with growing disappointment in generative AI.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“In the worst case, as I have warned before, we may hear shouts of “too big to fail” and calls for government bailouts.”
Our reading: In the worst case, there may be 'too big to fail' claims and calls for government bailouts of the AI industry.
No horizon
Qualifier: in the worst case
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“We could easily wind up with too many data centers, and a lot of chips that rapidly lose their value.”
Our reading: The US could easily end up with too many data centers and chips that rapidly lose value.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“And, honestly, I think that is the most likely scenario.”
Our reading: Marcus thinks the most likely scenario is the worst case he described, in which too many data centers and rapidly devaluing chips lead to shouts of 'too big to fail' and calls for government bailouts.
No horizon
Qualifier: honestly, I think
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Going all in on Generative AI, without diversifying intellectually and economically, is likely an immense mistake.”
Our reading: Going all in on generative AI without intellectual and economic diversification is likely an immense mistake for the nation.
No horizon
Qualifier: without diversifying intellectually and economically
Held from this post (2)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: Salesforce is retreating from its enthusiasm for LLMs, warning they are not trustworthy.
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: Silicon Valley and the White House appear to be betting heavily on LLMs leading to AGI and a redefined economy.