The Year of the Big-Balled Rat
We recorded 8 claims from this post. 2 were checked against evidence. 6 can’t be checked. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (8)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“And it may get a lot worse.”
Our reading: Generative AI's damage to science may get a lot worse.
No horizon
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Observation
“GenAI is messing with science.”
Our reading: Generative AI is currently damaging science.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The conclusion concerns an identifiable publication failure, not the frequency or aggregate consequences of such failures.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Two clearest examples so far this year, are the now retracted paper with the above-mentioned rat and a new lithium battery paper, with an opening sentence clearly written by an LLM.”
Our reading: In 2024 so far, a now-retracted paper with an AI-generated rat image and a lithium battery paper with an LLM-written opening sentence are the clearest examples of GenAI contaminating science.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The factual examples are strongly corroborated, but only the rat example was verified within the target period.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I am guessing there may be other errors in that paper, too, given the well-known tendency of LLMs to hallucinate in plausible ways that may initially escape notice.”
Our reading: LLMs tend to hallucinate in plausible ways that may escape notice, so the lithium battery paper may contain other errors.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I understand the utility in using LLMs for writing and illustration etc, particularly for nonnative speakers, but the long term consequences on science may be severe.”
Our reading: Although using LLMs for writing and illustration has utility, particularly for nonnative speakers, the long-term consequences of LLM use on science may be severe.
No horizon
Qualifier: long term
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“GenAI-created garbage could quickly overwhelm their reviewing processes, leading to a precipitous drop in reputation.”
Our reading: GenAI-created garbage submissions could quickly overwhelm journals' reviewing processes and cause a precipitous drop in their reputation.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“As ever, LLM developers are unlikely to be held to account.”
Our reading: LLM developers are unlikely to be held accountable for GenAI damage to scientific publishing.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Side note:, this is also a potential five-alarm fire for journal publishers, since for them reputation is all they have got.”
Our reading: GenAI-generated content in papers is a potential major crisis for journal publishers because their value rests on reputation.
No horizon