The Sam Altman Playbook
We recorded 9 claims from this post. 9 can’t be checked. 4 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (9)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Whether GenAI proves to be AGI is very much still up for grabs, and on any reasonable account we have a long way to go.”
Our reading: Whether generative AI proves to be AGI is very much still up for grabs, and on any reasonable account there is a long way to go.
No horizon
Qualifier: on any reasonable account
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“At Stanford he said, “I think every year for the next many we have dramatically more capable systems every year”, as if that were a sure thing, when of course it isn’t.”
Our reading: It is not a sure thing that AI systems will become dramatically more capable every year for many years.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Many (except perhaps the humility and soft-spoken tone) are familiar from Elon Musk’s regular overpromising; almost all the AI companies are basically following the same playbook, albeit with less panache.”
Our reading: Almost all AI companies follow the same overpromising, speculative playbook as Altman.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If they lost one of those in court, and precedent against training on copyright materials was set, the entire enterprise could be in jeopardy.”
Our reading: If OpenAI lost a copyright lawsuit setting precedent against training on copyrighted materials, its entire enterprise could be in jeopardy.
No horizon
Only if: OpenAI loses a copyright lawsuit
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Altman isn’t out there selling a new product; he is selling hope.”
Our reading: Altman is selling hope rather than a new product.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“GoogleDeepMind, Anthropic, Meta or someone else could conceivably beat them there.”
Our reading: Google DeepMind, Anthropic, Meta or someone else could conceivably beat OpenAI to a GPT-5-level model.
No horizon
Qualifier: conceivably
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Meta will likely release a GPT-4 level model within months – for free.”
Our reading: Meta will likely release a free GPT-4-level model within months of May 2024.
No horizon
Qualifier: for free
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Training GPT-4 was expensive, training GPT-5 maybe an order of magnitude more expensive. GPT-6 yet another order more expensive.”
Our reading: Training GPT-5 may cost an order of magnitude more than GPT-4, and GPT-6 another order of magnitude more.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“In seeking to grab vast resources for an approach that is deeply flawed, Altman is diverting resources from alternative approaches from AI that might be more trustworthy, reliable, and interpretable, potentially incurring considerable environment costs, and distracting from better ways of using capital to help humanity more generally.”
Our reading: In seeking vast resources for a deeply flawed approach, Altman is diverting resources from alternative AI approaches that might be more trustworthy, reliable and interpretable, is potentially incurring considerable environmental costs, and is distracting from better ways of using capital to help humanity more generally.
No horizon
Qualifier: alternatives that might be more trustworthy, reliable, and interpretable
Held from this post (4)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- Attribution is uncertain
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: Roughly half of OpenAI's first couple hundred billion dollars in profits, if they materialize at all, will go to Microsoft, and artists, writers, publishers and others are being screwed day after day, their work used without compensation or consent.