Game over. AGI is not imminent, and LLMs are not the royal road to getting there.
We recorded 2 claims from this post. 1 was checked against evidence. 1 can’t be checked. 3 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (2)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“First slowly, and then all at once, dreams of LLMs bringing us to the cusp of AGI have fallen apart.”
Our reading: Hopes that LLMs would bring us close to AGI have collapsed over the past few months.
No horizon
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“June, 2025: the Apple reasoning paper confirmed that even with “reasoning”, LLMs still can’t solve distribution shift, the core Achille’s heel in neural networks that I have been writing about for nearly 30 years.”
Our reading: Even with reasoning, LLMs still cannot handle distribution shift, as the June 2025 Apple paper confirmed.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The competing papers are evidence of a scientific dispute, not equally decisive demonstrations.
Held from this post (3)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: OpenAI's Sebastien Bubeck made wildly overhyped claims about AI math achievements, and Demis Hassabis debunked them in October 2025.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: GPT-5, released in August 2025, arrived late and did not meet expectations.