The exponential enshittification of science
We recorded 7 claims from this post. 7 can’t be checked. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (7)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“I realize now that I may have vastly underestimated the current scope of the problem.”
Our reading: The scope of generative AI's degradation of scientific literature may be much larger than Marcus previously estimated.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“In my opinion, every article with ChatGPT remnants should be considered suspect and perhaps retracted, because hallucinations may have filtered in, and both authors and reviewers) were asleep at the switch.”
Our reading: Every scientific article containing ChatGPT remnants should be treated as suspect and perhaps retracted, since hallucinations may have entered it.
No horizon
Qualifier: articles containing ChatGPT remnants
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“And GenAI might do a lot worse than merely tripling workloads; the total number of articles may radically spike, many of them dubious and a waste of reviewers’ time.”
Our reading: Generative AI may cause the number of submitted scientific articles to spike radically, more than tripling reviewer workloads, with many dubious papers.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I warned then that other areas would see the same. It looks like science is next.”
Our reading: It looks like science is the next area to be overrun by AI-generated fake submissions, as Clarkesworld was and as Marcus had warned other areas would be.
No horizon
Qualifier: it looks like
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“If science journals and science itself are overrun by LLM-generated garbage, as now seems imminent, my agnostic “I can’t quite tell yet if LLMs will ultimately be of net benefit to society” is going to switch to “shut it down if they can’t fix this problem.””
Our reading: It seems imminent that science journals and science itself will be overrun by LLM-generated garbage.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“If science journals and science itself are overrun by LLM-generated garbage, as now seems imminent, my agnostic “I can’t quite tell yet if LLMs will ultimately be of net benefit to society” is going to switch to “shut it down if they can’t fix this problem.””
Our reading: If science is overrun by LLM-generated garbage and the makers cannot fix it, LLMs should be shut down.
No horizon
Qualifier: if science journals are overrun by LLM-generated garbage
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Literally the only other solution I can envision is to force LLM manufacturers to pay a significant tax to subsidize the journal review system that they are about to destroy.”
Our reading: The only other solution Marcus can envision, besides shutting LLMs down if they can't fix the problem, is to force LLM manufacturers to pay a significant tax to subsidize the journal review system that he says they are about to destroy.
No horizon
Qualifier: the only other solution I can envision