Technoptimism, TED, and The Road to the Future
We recorded 12 claims from this post. 4 were checked against evidence. 8 can’t be checked. 1 more is held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (12)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Microsoft’s Mustafa Suleyman promised that hallucinations would be cured “soon”, yet my X feed is still filled with examples like these from Princeton Professor Aleksandra Korolova:”
Our reading: Although Mustafa Suleyman promised that hallucinations would be cured "soon", Marcus's X feed was still filled with examples of AI hallucinations, such as those from Princeton Professor Aleksandra Korolova.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Partial support is not a mixed outcome because no contradictory outcome evidence was found.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“I don’t see how we get to a positive AI future if we sweep all the problems under the rug.”
Our reading: Marcus does not see how a positive AI future can be reached if all of AI's problems are swept under the rug.
No horizon
Only if: if we sweep all the problems under the rug
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I think Khosla’s timing (all this by 2049) might be off, perhaps by decades, but I don’t see why we can’t get to most of this eventually.”
Our reading: Khosla's predicted technological advances may not all arrive by 2049, perhaps being decades late, though most could be achieved eventually.
No horizon
Qualifier: perhaps off by decades
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Conditional forecast
“A billion robots with a superficial understanding of the physical world would be a recipe for disaster.”
Our reading: Deploying a billion robots with only superficial understanding of the physical world would lead to disaster.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Only if: if robots have only superficial understanding of the physical world
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Conditional forecast
“We won’t get to a billion personal robots if they are as dodgy as driverless cars, frequently working, yet stymied often enough by outliers that we can’t fully count on them.”
Our reading: A billion personal robots will not be deployed if robots are as unreliable with outliers as driverless cars are.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Only if: if robots are as unreliable as driverless cars
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“But we can only get there if we can face the limitations and risks honestly.”
Our reading: Technologies that improve the world can only be reached if we can face their limitations and risks honestly.
No horizon
Only if: unless we can face the limitations and risks honestly
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“Khosla is a venture capitalist, and I think venture capitalists will have a huge role in whether or not we get to the promised land.”
Our reading: Marcus thinks venture capitalists will have a huge role in whether or not we get to the promised land of world-improving technology.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Limitation: The destination and magnitude of influence remain qualitative.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Dreamers who promise far more than they are likely to deliver are getting almost all the money, and (at least in AI) they are getting so much money for a path that it is unlikely to work that they are leaving too little oxygen for the exploration of new ideas that might work.”
Our reading: Dreamers who promise far more than they are likely to deliver are getting almost all the money, and, at least in AI, they are getting so much money for a path unlikely to work that too little oxygen is left for exploring new ideas that might work.
No horizon
Scope: at least in AI (applies to the crowding-out claim)
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Dreamers who promise far more than they are likely to deliver are getting almost all the money, and (at least in AI) they are getting so much money for a path that it is unlikely to work that they are leaving too little oxygen for the exploration of new ideas that might work.”
Our reading: The dominant, heavily funded current AI approach is unlikely to work.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Right now I think the current net effect of venture capital is not great.”
Our reading: Marcus thinks that right now the net effect of venture capital is not great.
No horizon
Qualifier: I think
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I doubt that anyone with a short leash can achieve the breakthroughs we will need, if we are to get to the optimistic future so many of us would like to see.”
Our reading: AI efforts funded on a short leash are unlikely to achieve the breakthroughs needed for an optimistic AI future.
No horizon
Qualifier: with a short funding leash
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“There is also a hostility in some parts of Silicon Valley right now to regulation. This a mistake.”
Our reading: The hostility to regulation in some parts of Silicon Valley right now is a mistake.
No horizon
Scope: some parts of Silicon Valley
Held from this post (1)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.