Should we worry more about short-term AI risk or long-term AI risk?
We recorded 11 claims from this post. 4 were checked against evidence. 7 can’t be checked. 3 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (11)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If we don’t start fighting now, democracy may well be overwhelmed by misinformation and consequent polarization—and perhaps quite soon.”
Our reading: If we don't start fighting misinformation now, democracy may well be overwhelmed by misinformation and consequent polarization, perhaps quite soon.
No horizon
Only if: if we don't start fighting now
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“It will be an uphill, ongoing move-and-countermove arms race from here”
Our reading: Fighting AI-generated misinformation will be an uphill, ongoing arms race of moves and countermoves.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Limitation: Laboratory watermark results do not directly measure misinformation impact.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“The 2024 elections could be unlike anything we have seen before.”
Our reading: Because of AI-generated misinformation, the 2024 elections could be unlike any elections seen before.
No horizon
Qualifier: in the context of AI-generated misinformation
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Of course I view ChatGPT as only dimly related to artificial general intelligence, but I do see it as dress rehearsal.”
Our reading: ChatGPT is only dimly related to artificial general intelligence, but it serves as a dress rehearsal for it.
No horizon
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Observation
“To me the only solution to the long-term risk issue is to build machines with consensus human values, but we are a long way from knowing how to do that”
Our reading: The field is a long way from knowing how to build machines with consensus human values.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The evidence includes research organizations' own assessments rather than a field-wide proof.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“A lot of machine learning researchers are worried. And yet most people carry on as if they weren’t.”
Our reading: Many machine learning researchers worry about very bad outcomes from AI, yet most people carry on as if they didn't.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The researcher survey had a 17% response rate.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Large language models are here to stay, their recipe well understood, and not hard for people skilled in the art to replicate; large pretrained models are out their for the taking on the dark web.”
Our reading: LLMs are here to stay: their recipe is well understood, skilled practitioners can replicate them without much difficulty, and large pretrained models are freely available on the dark web.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The leak is established through reputable reporting rather than a directly inspected primary distribution archive.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“I have caused for something less: stricter regulations governing deployment.”
Our reading: AI deployment should be governed by stricter regulations, rather than a full pause on AI.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“The genie is already partway out of the bottle.”
Our reading: LLM technology has already partly escaped containment.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Either way I think we need to raise these questions seriously, sooner rather than later.”
Our reading: Society should seriously raise questions about pausing or regulating AI, sooner rather than later.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“We can’t just act as if nothing is happening here. And we can’t act like we have infinite time to decide what to do, either.”
Our reading: Society must not ignore AI risks or assume it has unlimited time to decide how to respond.
No horizon
Held from this post (3)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.