Seven reasons I wouldn’t count Google out
We recorded 13 claims from this post. 8 were checked against evidence. 5 can’t be checked. 3 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (13)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Observation
“Google/Alphabet are hemorrhaging talent, morale is poor, and their latest model is delayed.”
Our reading: Google/Alphabet is hemorrhaging talent, its morale is poor, and its latest model is delayed.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The evidence supports a succession of senior AI departures, not unusually high attrition across Alphabet's entire workforce [e1, e2, e5].
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Google still has access to an enormous amount of data, from search and email especially, at a scale that nobody else has.”
Our reading: Google has access to data, especially from search and email, at a scale no other company has.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The regulatory finding concerns search data, not companies' overall data holdings [e1].
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Only a small number of companies (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, maybe a few in China) can match on sheer compute and expertise building distributed systems.”
Our reading: Only a few companies can match Google's compute and distributed-systems expertise.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The claim is checkable in principle, but no precise matching threshold is supplied.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Google still makes a ton of money, $402 billion in revenue last year, $132 billion in profit), and has vastly more cash to play with than OpenAI and Anthropic.”
Our reading: Google made $402 billion revenue and $132 billion profit last year and has vastly more cash than OpenAI and Anthropic.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The claim's accounting basis and rounding method are unspecified. The reported revenue rounds to $403 billion to the nearest billion; the evidence does not establish how Marcus obtained $402 billion [e1].
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Observation
“Google has great distribution, through Android, Mail, Search, Docs, YouTube etc.”
Our reading: Google has strong distribution through Android, Mail, Search, Docs and YouTube.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The evidence is company-reported.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“His lack of name recognition may be a liability in the short-term, but his sobriety may be crucial in the long-run.”
Our reading: Kavukcuoglu's low name recognition may hurt Google short-term, but his sobriety may prove crucial long-term.
No horizon
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“He has worked together with his replacement, Koray Kavukcuoglu, for over a decade, and they will continue to work together.”
Our reading: Hassabis and his replacement Kavukcuoglu will keep working together at Google.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Limitation: Internal advisory work may occur without public documentation.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Google’s most obvious competitors have troubles of their own. OpenAI has a declining reputation, Anthropic has conflict with the administration, Microsoft and Amazon don’t have the same talent pool.”
Our reading: Google's competitors have problems: OpenAI's reputation is declining, Anthropic is in conflict with the administration, and Microsoft and Amazon lack comparable talent.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Reputation depends on the population and measure selected.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“Google can probably keep going even if it doesn’t take much of the LLM market in the end (which I expect will be a multi-way tie with relatively modest profits).”
Our reading: The LLM market will end up as a multi-way tie with relatively modest profits.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Limitation: Several potentially relevant pages could not be read substantively and were excluded.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“On the other hand, if things do turn out as I expect, and there is a multi-way tie with relatively modest profits, Anthropic and OpenAI don’t have that much else to fall back on; they may never earn out their investments.”
Our reading: If things turn out as he expects, with the LLM market a multi-way tie with relatively modest profits, Anthropic and OpenAI don't have that much else to fall back on and may never earn out their investments.
No horizon
Only if: if the LLM market turns out to be a multi-way tie with relatively modest profits, as he expects
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Google may simply outlast the other two.”
Our reading: Google may outlast OpenAI and Anthropic.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Google definitely doesn’t look unassailable like they once did, and may never be as strong as they once were, but it’s premature to count them out.”
Our reading: Google definitely doesn't look unassailable as it once did, and may never be as strong as it once was.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Google definitely doesn’t look unassailable like they once did, and may never be as strong as they once were, but it’s premature to count them out.”
Our reading: It is premature to count Google out.
No horizon
Held from this post (3)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: Google is going to the bond market yet again, which is worrisome.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently