OpenAI’s Got 9.9 Problems, and Twitch Ain’t One
We recorded 21 claims from this post. 1 was checked against evidence. 20 can’t be checked. 5 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (21)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Regardless of how the internal investigation comes out, 2024 is a looking a lot more challenging, both for Altman and for the company.”
Our reading: 2024 looks likely to be a much more challenging year for OpenAI and Sam Altman.
No horizon
Qualifier: regardless of internal investigation outcome
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“It would not be surprising if OpenAI spends a huge part of its energy this year defending lawsuits.”
Our reading: OpenAI may spend a huge part of its energy in 2024 defending lawsuits.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“First, lawsuits against the company are likely to come fast and furious.”
Our reading: OpenAI will likely face a rapid flurry of lawsuits in 2024.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The request is likely in violation both of common law and of international conventions around intellectual property such as the Berne convention, and publishers, writers, and artists have every right to fight it tooth and nail.”
Our reading: OpenAI's request for a copyright exemption is likely in violation of common law and international IP conventions like Berne.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Second, battles over copyright materials may wind up cutting massively into profits, and may be unavoidable.”
Our reading: Copyright battles may cut massively into OpenAI's profits and may be unavoidable.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Given how many different kinds of copyrighted works they are drawing on, and from how many vendors (many media outlets, many book publishers, many film studios, etc), and given how commercial their usage is of those sources, the licensing costs may quickly mount.”
Our reading: OpenAI's licensing costs for copyrighted material may quickly mount.
No horizon
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Third, at least so far OpenAI lacks both profits and a moat.”
Our reading: As of January 2024, OpenAI has neither profits nor a competitive moat.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Earlier losses cannot be carried forward as proof of current losses.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Large language models such as ChatGPT may quickly become commodities; we can expect price wars, and profits may continue to be elusive, or modest at best.”
Our reading: Large language models such as ChatGPT may quickly become commodities, price wars can be expected, and profits may continue to be elusive or modest at best.
No horizon
Qualifier: we can expect price wars
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Fifth, although the underlying technology initially improved rapidly, leading to a lot of excitement, it may soon, perhaps this year or next, reach a plateau.”
Our reading: LLM technology may reach a plateau, perhaps in 2024 or 2025.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Progress depends heavily on having vast amounts of data, and it is likely that most of the high quality data sources have already been tapped.”
Our reading: Most high-quality data sources for LLM training have likely already been tapped.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If a plateau is reached in the near-term, a lot of the enthusiasm may dissipate, and investors may start to temper their investments.”
Our reading: If LLMs plateau in the near term, enthusiasm may dissipate and investors may temper their investments.
No horizon
Only if: if a plateau is reached in the near-term
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Moreover more data tends to go with bigger models that more expensive to operate; the increases in cost may not be accompanied by big enough gains in performance, at some point leading the big companies to step off the gas.”
Our reading: The rising costs of bigger models trained on more data may not be accompanied by big enough gains in performance, at some point leading the big companies to step off the gas.
No horizon
Scope: bigger models that go with more data are more expensive to operate
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Sixth, although ChatGPT has already widely been adopted by computer programmers and perhaps others, and been explored by a great many Chief Information Officers and the like, it is still not clear that there will be enough adoption to justify the company’s stratospheric valuations.”
Our reading: It is unclear that ChatGPT adoption will be enough to justify OpenAI's very high valuation.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“(Regulation in the EU and elsewhere may force OpenAI to confront problems with their software around unreliability, privacy, its off-label use to generate misinformation, and in the service of cybercrime, and so on).”
Our reading: EU and other regulation may force OpenAI to confront unreliability, privacy, misinformation, and cybercrime problems.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Ninth, internal tensions are likely to remain.”
Our reading: Internal tensions at OpenAI are likely to persist in 2024.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“This call could easily put a further strain on the company, and perhaps lead to other uncomfortable revelations if California chooses to investigate.”
Our reading: Public Citizen's call could strain OpenAI and, if California investigates, lead to uncomfortable revelations.
No horizon
Only if: if California chooses to investigate
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“It’s also worth noting that OpenAI is not alone is all of this; many other generative AI companies are likely to encounter intense legal and public pressure this year, around potential cases of copyright infringement.”
Our reading: Many generative AI companies are likely to face intense legal and public pressure over copyright in 2024.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Valuations for OpenAI and some of its peers may drop, sharply.”
Our reading: Valuations of OpenAI and some peers may drop sharply.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“External investors pouring money into the company (most recently at a valuation rumored to be $86 billion dollars) may find themselves disappointed, unclear on how profits to justify those valuations could ever be made.”
Our reading: External investors putting money into OpenAI, most recently at a rumored $86 billion valuation, may find themselves disappointed and unclear on how profits to justify those valuations could ever be made.
No horizon
Qualifier: valuation rumored to be $86 billion
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Here’s my own guess: OpenAI, backed by Microsoft’s trillions, and now deeply tied to Microsoft, will survive, but the bloom will fade from the rose.”
Our reading: Marcus guesses that OpenAI, backed by and deeply tied to Microsoft, will survive, but that the bloom will fade from the rose.
No horizon
Qualifier: my own guess
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“A lot of what has driven excitement about OpenAI has been a sense of unlimited potential. That could soon change.”
Our reading: The perception of OpenAI's unlimited potential could soon change.
No horizon
Held from this post (5)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: There is no immediate fix for LLM hallucinations, and one may not arrive soon.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: Many of the major companies that looked into ChatGPT in 2023 have been held back to a greater or lesser degree by its hallucination errors.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: ChatGPT and related systems have a truthiness problem: some of what they say is true and some is not, and it is very difficult for the end user to anticipate which will be true.
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: Lawsuit and licensing payouts will cut heavily into OpenAI's potential future profits.