๐๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ผ๐น๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ! My conversation with Chinaโs Victor Gao plus a hot take on new essay by Anthropicโs CEO Dario Amodei
We recorded 7 claims from this post. 7 canโt be checked. 6 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (7)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speakerโs words in this post. A label such as โSupportedโ or โCanโt be checkedโ is the claimโs current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Canโt be checkedSaid
Observation
โDeepSeek definitely has him rattled. The piece is a long and articulate, but also quite defensive.โ
Our reading: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is rattled by DeepSeek, and his essay is defensive.
No horizon
Assessment: Canโt be checkedSaid
Observation
โAmodei is correct that DeepSeek didn't do anything in terms of cost reductions that wouldn't have happened here before too long, anyway.โ
Our reading: DeepSeek's cost reductions were ones US labs would have achieved before long anyway.
No horizon
Assessment: Canโt be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
โ(Still embarrassing to the US giants though that a leaner, hungrier startup abroad got there first.)โ
Our reading: It is still embarrassing to the US AI giants that a leaner, hungrier startup abroad (DeepSeek) got there first on cost reductions.
No horizon
Assessment: Canโt be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
โThe country that does its best to develop a new tech that is more reliable and more difficult to replicate will win.โ
Our reading: The country that does its best to develop new AI technology that is more reliable and harder to replicate than LLMs will win the race.
No horizon
Only if: does its best to develop a new tech that is more reliable and harder to replicate
Assessment: Canโt be checkedSaid
Observation
โMy takeaway is different: the LLM race is an enormously expensive effort to win a race that can no longer be won.โ
Our reading: The LLM race is enormously expensive and can no longer be won by any country.
No horizon
Assessment: Canโt be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
โWe should be thinking about how to sponsor innovation, and recognize that the best funded companies aren't always the most innovative. Going all in on them is a mistake.โ
Our reading: We should be thinking about how to sponsor innovation and recognize that the best-funded companies aren't always the most innovative, and going all in on them is a mistake.
No horizon
Assessment: Canโt be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
โAmodei's biggest advantage is having more chips, and I understand him wanting to prosecute that advantage, but what we really need are better ideas, and the oxygen for innovative startups to breathe.โ
Our reading: Anthropic's main advantage is having more chips, but AI progress really needs better ideas and room for innovative startups.
No horizon
Held from this post (6)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: China largely caught up in AI despite export controls, and the controls may have pushed it toward important efficiency gains.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: It is not known that building AI smarter than almost all humans requires millions of chips and tens of billions of dollars.
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: US chip export controls on China have so far not been very successful and may have had paradoxical effects; the controls Amodei urges would help Anthropic.