Marcus goes gaga over Gates clip
We recorded 5 claims from this post. 1 was checked against evidence. 4 can’t be checked. 3 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (5)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“Not unrelatedly, meanwhile, many tech leaders have discovered that the best way to raise valuations is to hint that AGI is imminent, always on the dubious premise that scaling will keep going indefinitely; it behooves them financially to pretend.”
Our reading: Many tech leaders hint that AGI is imminent in order to raise valuations, relying on the dubious premise that scaling continues indefinitely.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“I fully 100% agree, and have said as much before.”
Our reading: Marcus fully agrees with Gates that, after perhaps two more turns of the crank for scaling, scaling is not the most interesting dimension and AI needs techniques such as metacognition, and says he has said as much before.
No horizon
Qualifier: after that (after perhaps two more turns of scaling)
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Spending upwards of 100 billion dollars on the current approach, which is what two more iterations of scaling would likely require, given that is unlikely to get to AGI (or ever be reliable) seems wasteful to me.”
Our reading: The current scaling approach is unlikely ever to reach AGI or become reliable.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Spending upwards of 100 billion dollars on the current approach, which is what two more iterations of scaling would likely require, given that is unlikely to get to AGI (or ever be reliable) seems wasteful to me.”
Our reading: Two more iterations of scaling would likely require upwards of $100 billion in spending.
No horizon
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“Neurosymbolic AI has long been an underdog; in the end I expect it to come from behind and be essential.”
Our reading: Neurosymbolic AI will eventually come from behind and become essential.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Limitation: The intended destination and meaning of essential require interpretation.
Held from this post (3)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: Marcus does not think metacognition can work without bringing explicit symbols back into the mix, and does not see how high-level metacognition could be done over uninterpretable black boxes.
- The two reviews read the claim differently