Is OpenAI more like WeWork or Theranos?
We recorded 11 claims from this post. 4 were checked against evidence. 7 can’t be checked. 5 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (11)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“OpenAI might be screaming success - but its success is hardly assured.”
Our reading: OpenAI's success is far from assured.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Without Microsoft’s unwavering support, they could find themselves in deep trouble.”
Our reading: If OpenAI loses Microsoft's unwavering support, it could end up in deep trouble.
No horizon
Only if: without Microsoft's unwavering support
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Meanwhile GPT-5 still hasn’t arrived, and nor has the much ballyhooed Sora.”
Our reading: As of October 2024, neither GPT-5 nor Sora has been released.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The required event-date restriction prevents the later launch announcements from serving as decisive evidence.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Living up to OpenAI’s $150B valuation won’t be easy.”
Our reading: OpenAI will find it hard to live up to its $150B valuation.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“When I think of OpenAI, I often think of WeWork: charismatic founder, immense valuation, questionable business plan, and the possibility of similar immense deflation in their valuation, if confidence wavers.”
Our reading: Like WeWork, OpenAI has a questionable business plan and its valuation could deflate immensely if confidence wavers.
No horizon
Only if: if confidence wavers
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Those products have not by a longshot lived up to everyone’s expectations, but they do actually ship, and customers can try those products out and decide for themselves. It’s hard to call that smoke and mirrors.”
Our reading: OpenAI's products have not by a longshot lived up to everyone's expectations, but they do actually ship and customers can try them, so it is hard to call OpenAI smoke and mirrors.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Scoring only product access would omit an explicit part of the listed proposition.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“But then again, their products have always been served with large side order of bullshit, like when Sam said, apparently jokingly, that “AGI has been achieved internally”. None of the robot stuff they promised in the Rubik’s cube campaign ever shipped.”
Our reading: OpenAI's products have always come with lots of hype, and none of the robotics promised in its Rubik's cube campaign ever shipped.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The distinction between research ambitions and product promises materially affects the assessment.
Assessment: ContradictedSaid
Observation
“The difference between GPT-3 and GPT-4 was by all accounts massive; the difference between GPT-4 and o1 is by all accounts modest.”
Our reading: By all accounts the difference between GPT-3 and GPT-4 was massive, while by all accounts the difference between GPT-4 and o1 is modest.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The later comparisons use GPT-4o and o1-preview, rather than original GPT-4 and a later o1 release [e1–e3].
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If the answer isn’t bigger LLMs, we may have wasted half a decade.”
Our reading: If bigger LLMs are not the answer, the field may have wasted half a decade.
No horizon
Only if: if bigger LLMs are not the answer
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“If things do fall apart, it is not just investors who stand to lose, but society. Immense resources may end up being wasted in vain, because of hype.”
Our reading: If things with OpenAI do fall apart, society as well as investors stands to lose, and immense resources may end up being wasted in vain because of hype.
No horizon
Only if: if things do fall apart
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“AI ought to be looking itself in the mirror, too, right about now.”
Our reading: The AI industry should take a hard look at its own hype, as biomedicine had to after Theranos.
No horizon
Held from this post (5)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- Attribution is uncertain
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: OpenAI's o1 is expensive to operate and far from a general solution.
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: As far as he can tell, the capability-progress graph posted by an OpenAI employee does not plot real data and does not make clear that it is merely hypothetical.
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: OpenAI's valuation and press coverage rest largely on promise rather than delivered results.