Is Microsoft about to get the deal of the century? Or is Sam Altman unloading OpenAI at just the right time?
We recorded 5 claims from this post. 1 was checked against evidence. 4 can’t be checked. 6 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (5)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“That’s a lot, and not the sort of thing that a rocketship startup would typically agree to.”
Our reading: Giving Microsoft 75% of OpenAI's profits until it recoups its investment is not something a rocketship startup would typically agree to.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The comparison group and historical window require interpretation.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“As I explained to Ezra Klein, and have discussed before in this Substack I personally think the latter, less rosy picture, is closer to the mark.”
Our reading: The less rosy picture—that ChatGPT is very limited and not close to AGI—is closer to the truth than the view that OpenAI is near AGI.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: This finding does not reject the factual content about contemporary ChatGPT's limitations.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“It doesn’t quite add up.”
Our reading: OpenAI preparing to take a lot of money off the table doesn't quite add up if Altman genuinely thinks OpenAI is close to AGI.
No horizon
Scope: if Altman genuinely thinks OpenAI is close to AGI
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“My best guess? Altman doesn’t really know how to make OpenAI into the juggernaut that everybody else seems to think he’s got.”
Our reading: Marcus's best guess is that Altman does not know how to turn OpenAI into the juggernaut others believe it is.
No horizon
Qualifier: best guess
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Maybe Altman is getting out while the getting is good.”
Our reading: Maybe Altman is getting out of OpenAI while the getting is good.
No horizon
Qualifier: maybe
Held from this post (6)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: ChatGPT is super expensive to operate (rumored at about $3 million/day), and OpenAI's revenue so far is modest (perhaps low tens of millions).
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: Marcus says he has argued that ChatGPT will not displace Google, but acknowledges that nobody knows.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: LLMs are quickly becoming commodities, and it is unclear OpenAI has any unique, protectable IP.
- The two reviews read the claim differently