Hot take on OpenAI’s new GPT-4o
We recorded 5 claims from this post. 2 were checked against evidence. 3 can’t be checked. 2 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (5)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“If OpenAI had GPT-5, they have would shown it.”
Our reading: If OpenAI had GPT-5, it would have shown it.
No horizon
Qualifier: if OpenAI had GPT-5
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“They don’t have GPT-5 after 14 months of trying.”
Our reading: OpenAI does not have GPT-5 after 14 months of trying since GPT-4.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Internal completion status may not be public.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Lots of quirky errors are already being reported, same as ever, like this reasoning error from Jane Rosenzweig:”
Our reading: Lots of quirky errors in GPT-4o are already being reported, same as ever, such as a reasoning error reported by Jane Rosenzweig.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Social-media text extraction omitted the underlying example.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Causal claim
“OpenAI has presumably pivoted to new features precisely because they don’t know how produce the kind of capability advance that the “exponential improvement” would have predicted.”
Our reading: OpenAI has presumably pivoted to new features precisely because it does not know how to produce the kind of capability advance that 'exponential improvement' would have predicted.
No horizon
Qualifier: presumably
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Most importantly, each day in which there is no GPT-5 level model–from OpenAI or any of their well-financed, well-motivated competitors—is evidence that we may have reached a phase of diminishing returns.”
Our reading: The continued absence of a GPT-5 level model from OpenAI or competitors is evidence that LLM development may have reached a phase of diminishing returns.
No horizon
Qualifier: absence of any GPT-5 level model from OpenAI or competitors
Held from this post (2)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: GPT-4o's speech synthesis is terrific and reminds him of Google Duplex, which never took off.
- The two reviews read the claim differently