Hot take on Google’s Gemini and GPT-4
We recorded 3 claims from this post. 2 were checked against evidence. 1 can’t be checked. 2 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (3)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“From a commercial standpoint GPT-4 is no longer unique.”
Our reading: Commercially, GPT-4 is no longer a unique offering.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The disclosures provide no matched evaluation establishing broad commercial comparability with GPT-4 on December 6 [e1, e2].
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The fact that Google, with all its resources, did NOT blow away GPT-4 could be telling.”
Our reading: The fact that Google, with all its resources, did not blow away GPT-4 could be telling about whether LLMs are close to a plateau.
No horizon
Qualifier: Google, with all its resources, did not blow away GPT-4
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Observation
“Note that Gates and Altman have both been dropping hints, and GPT-5 isn’t here after a year despite immense commercial desire.”
Our reading: Gates and Altman have both been dropping hints, and GPT-5 has not arrived after a year despite immense commercial desire.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Support depends on treating the year as an approximate ChatGPT-era anniversary.
Held from this post (2)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: Gemini appears by many measures to have matched or slightly exceeded GPT-4 but not to have blown it away.
- The two reviews read the claim differently