Groupthink versus Tulips. What will historians think of 2024?
We recorded 8 claims from this post. 3 were checked against evidence. 5 can’t be checked. 1 more is held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (8)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Strikingly, Meta is giving it away free, and the more deeply-trained version (still to come/still being trained) may well be in the general vicinity of GPT-4.”
Our reading: The more deeply-trained version of Meta's LLAMA-3, still being trained, may well be in the general vicinity of GPT-4.
No horizon
Scope: more deeply-trained version still to come/still being trained
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Causal claim
“That means, of course, that OpenAI’s business model is threatened; same for Anthropic’s, Mistral’s, and so on.”
Our reading: Meta's free near-GPT-4 model threatens the business models of OpenAI, Anthropic, Mistral and similar companies.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Commercial threat is broader than benchmark performance.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“Whatever tiny moat there was between the companies will further diminish.”
Our reading: The small moat between LLM companies will further diminish.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Limitation: The ordinary business meaning of moat is broader than model quality.
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Forecast
“LLMs are well on their way to becoming a commodity; price wars will be intense.”
Our reading: LLMs are becoming a commodity and price wars among providers will be intense.
Settled before its deadline Evidence as of
Limitation: Commoditization is assessed as a direction of travel, consistent with well on their way.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“Meanwhile, and perhaps not coincidentally, the bubble deflation that I have been warning since August of has finally perhaps begun:”
Our reading: The AI bubble deflation may have begun as of April 2024.
No horizon
Qualifier: perhaps
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“So 2024 could be remembered as the high point in a kind of tulip-mania.”
Our reading: 2024 could be remembered as the peak of an AI tulip-mania.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Rhetoric
“Historians are going to be scratching their heads.”
Our reading: Historians will be puzzled by the AI industry's groupthink.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“Gary Marcus is shaking his head, but cautiously optimistic that an increase of realism might lead to a renaissance of new approaches to AI.”
Our reading: An increase in realism about AI might lead to a renaissance of new approaches to AI.
No horizon
Only if: if realism about AI increases
Held from this post (1)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.