Gaslighting and reality in AI
We recorded 4 claims from this post. 3 were checked against evidence. 1 can’t be checked. 2 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (4)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“I said the problem wasn’t math per se, but that large language models didn’t represent robust world models of how events fold over time; I stand by this 100% even today.”
Our reading: Large language models do not represent robust world models of how events unfold over time, and this was true from 2019 through early 2023.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The conclusion depends partly on what counts as robust.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Causal claim
“And I still attribute those problems to a lack of world models that represent the ways in which things unfold over time. I still see this as the central flaw in large language models.”
Our reading: The dopey outputs of GPT-style LLMs are caused by a lack of world models of how things unfold over time, which is the central flaw of LLMs.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Task-specific improvements do not establish a general causal ranking.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“But more than three years on, it’s still—even after a new update a few days ago focused around math—having lot of problems with easy word problems like this:”
Our reading: Even after its January 30, 2023 math-focused update, ChatGPT still has many problems with easy word problems.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Missing image contents prevent verification of the examples Marcus cited.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“My goalposts haven’t shifted; I still want A(G)I that knows what the f___ it’s talking about, and GPT still doesn’t.”
Our reading: GPT still does not understand what it is talking about.
No horizon
Held from this post (2)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.