Does OpenAI’s new financing make sense?
We recorded 4 claims from this post. 1 was checked against evidence. 3 can’t be checked. 5 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (4)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Causal claim
“One thing that Noble doesn’t mention is why OpenAI has struggled to make a profit; in my eyes, there are three reasons, that I have emphasized here before: the product is unreliable (placing an upper bound on how much many people be willing to pay), it is expensive to operate, and they have no technical moat, which has led to price wars.”
Our reading: In Marcus's view, one reason OpenAI has struggled to make a profit is that its product is unreliable, which places an upper bound on how much many people are willing to pay for it.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: General AI survey findings do not directly measure OpenAI purchasing behavior.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“That OpenAI’s’s valuation should more or less double in a year or so when they all but squandered their former lead appears, at least to me, to be insane.”
Our reading: To Marcus at least, it appears insane that OpenAI's valuation should more or less double in a year or so when OpenAI has all but squandered its former lead.
No horizon
Qualifier: appears, at least to me
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Even with Nvidia and other propping them up, I hold onto my longstanding sense that there is a good chance that OpenAI will someday be seen as the WeWork of AI.”
Our reading: There is a good chance that OpenAI will eventually be seen as the WeWork of AI, even with Nvidia and others supporting it.
No horizon
Qualifier: even with Nvidia and others propping it up
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“The finances just don’t make sense.”
Our reading: The finances behind OpenAI's new financing just don't make sense.
No horizon
Held from this post (5)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: A couple of years ago the conventional wisdom was that OpenAI was unassailable, but now, by its own account, OpenAI is in a Code Red, with Google right on its heels.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: OpenAI's new round took about 65% of all venture capital, even though OpenAI has never made a profit, has no immediate prospect of one, and has no clear technical advantage.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: OpenAI's lack of a technical moat has meant that competitors such as Google and Anthropic have caught up with it, and some Chinese companies are not far behind and are ahead on price.