Could GPT-5 revolutionize military strategy?
We recorded 8 claims from this post. 4 were checked against evidence. 4 can’t be checked. 3 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (8)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Observation
“It’s notorious for making illegal moves in chess.”
Our reading: ChatGPT is notorious for making illegal moves in chess.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Notoriety is qualitative.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“There are many legitimate near-term fears about the misuse of AI, ranging from mis- and disinformation to voice cloning scams to bias to deepfake scams and deepfake porn.”
Our reading: There are many legitimate near-term fears about the misuse of AI, ranging from misinformation and disinformation to voice cloning scams, bias, deepfake scams and deepfake porn.
No horizon
Qualifier: near-term
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Forecast
“But anyone who fears that GPT-5 is going to convey an immense advantage in military strategy has got to be kidding.”
Our reading: GPT-5 will not convey an immense advantage in military strategy.
No deadline stated Evidence as of
Limitation: Public evidence may omit classified deployments.
Assessment: MixedSaid
Observation
“Special-purpose AI has been great for static, easily-simulated games with rules that have been stable for centuries, like Chess, Go, and even Diplomacy, but never been great at dynamic environments in which the environment itself is unpredictable.”
Our reading: Special-purpose AI has been great for static, easily simulated games with rules that have been stable for centuries, such as chess, Go and even Diplomacy, but has never been great at dynamic environments in which the environment itself is unpredictable.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The distinction between environmental uncertainty and unrestricted task change affects the result.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“And they continue to be unstable in virtually everything they do.”
Our reading: Generative AI systems continue to be unstable in virtually everything they do.
No horizon
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Even with a lot of data, GPT-4 is playing chess at around the level where (top) chess programs were in 1976, not even close to current state of the art.”
Our reading: GPT-4 plays chess at about the level of top chess programs in 1976, far from the current state of the art.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The 1976 tournament figure comes from a secondary account [e2].
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Letting them run a war would be malpractice.”
Our reading: Generative AI systems should not be allowed to run a war; doing so would be malpractice.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Please, developers and military personnel, don’t let your chatbots grow up to generals.”
Our reading: Developers and military personnel should not let chatbots take on the role of military generals.
No horizon
Held from this post (3)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: General-purpose generative AI systems like GPT-4 cannot even handle static game situations.