Could generative AI turn out to be the tech industry’s Vietnam? And could public backlash lead AI to a better place?
We recorded 7 claims from this post. 3 were checked against evidence. 4 can’t be checked. 3 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (7)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Observation
“As I am sure you have heard by now, the backlash against AI i keep nattering on about is growing fast.”
Our reading: Public backlash against AI is growing fast as of May 2026.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The polls establish year-over-year changes in US sentiment, not a worldwide trend or a precise growth rate during May. [e1, e2]
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“Every time I think about the numbers and lack of RoI for most pilot studies and the reliability problems I think so.”
Our reading: Marcus thinks the multitrillion-dollar investment in AI could turn out to be another epic, arrogance-fueled mistake like the Vietnam war.
No horizon
Qualifier: 'I think so' in answer to a 'could' question
Assessment: UnresolvedSaid
Observation
“Every time I think about the numbers and lack of RoI for most pilot studies and the reliability problems I think so.”
Our reading: Most AI pilot studies show no return on investment, and AI has ongoing reliability problems.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: No cited study provides representative pilot-level counts with comparable financial costs and returns for January–March 2026. [e1, e2, e3]
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Forecast
“In my Politico “Black Swan” prediction for 2026 year, from January I made the seemingly wild prediction that,“By the end of 2026, President Trump will have begun to distance himself from the aggressively pro-AI industry policies that characterized his AI strategy in 2025””
Our reading: By the end of 2026, President Trump will have begun distancing himself from the aggressively pro-AI-industry policies of his 2025 AI strategy.
Settled before its deadline Evidence as of
Limitation: The outcome depends on treating administration implementation under a presidential order as presidential distancing.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“The great Trump AI repositioning that I forecast may have begun!”
Our reading: Trump's forecast repositioning away from pro-AI-industry policy may have begun by May 2026.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“And if the backlash has enough force behind it, Trump may move further away from last year’s anti-regulatory policies.”
Our reading: If public backlash against AI is strong enough, Trump may move further away from his 2025 anti-regulatory AI policies.
No horizon
Only if: if the backlash has enough force behind it
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Conditional forecast
“As I argued at the end of Taming Silicon Valley, which I hope you will read or reread now that is so directly relevant, if the people unite, we might actually be able to get AI to a better place.”
Our reading: If the public unites, it might be possible to steer AI to a better place.
No horizon
Only if: if the people unite
Held from this post (3)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The criteria are ambiguous. Our reading, not assessed: As of May 2026, signs that Trump is distancing himself from pro-AI-industry policy have appeared sooner than Marcus expected.
- The two reviews read the claim differently
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: In a reversal, Trump is now actively considering an FDA-like pre-release safety check for major AI applications, possibly prompted by fears over Anthropic's Mythos.