AGI isn’t coming in 2025, and GPT-5 probably isn’t either.
We recorded 8 claims from this post. 3 were checked against evidence. 5 can’t be checked. 3 more are held. Read the post at its source.
Claims from this post (8)
In the order they appear in the post. Each quotation is the speaker’s words in this post. A label such as “Supported” or “Can’t be checked” is the claim’s current assessment; its page has the evidence and the reasons.
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Observation
“Despite the daily shouts of “exponential progress” for nearly two years, GPT-5 hasn’t come.”
Our reading: As of January 2025, GPT-5 has not been released despite nearly two years of claims of exponential progress.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The in-period evidence is a news summary of a paywalled WSJ report.
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Observation
“But it’s becoming increasingly clear that they are struggling in building a model worthy of the GPT-5 name.”
Our reading: OpenAI is struggling to build a model worthy of the GPT-5 name.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: Rests on anonymous-source news reports summarized by secondary outlets.
Assessment: SupportedSaid
Observation
“The hypothesis I have been floating since 2022 that scaling data alone would not be enough for robust AI has become increasingly prevalent.”
Our reading: Marcus's hypothesis, which he has been floating since 2022, that scaling data alone would not be enough for robust AI has become increasingly prevalent.
No horizon Evidence as of
Limitation: The evidence does not measure prevalence in a defined population or establish majority agreement.
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“We might see GPT-5 this year, but given bottlenecks on data and inherent limits in LLMs we may well not.”
Our reading: GPT-5 may well not be released in 2025, owing to data bottlenecks and inherent limits of LLMs.
No horizon
Qualifier: given bottlenecks on data and inherent limits in LLMs
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Observation
“o3 is a real advance in some domains beyond GPT-4, but it’s likely not the quantum leap forward people would expect of the name GPT-5, and at a rumored $1000/querry certainly not at the price point anyone might have hoped for”
Our reading: o3 is a real advance beyond GPT-4 in some domains, but it is likely not the quantum leap people would expect of the name GPT-5, and at a rumored $1000 per query it is certainly not at the price point anyone might have hoped for.
No horizon
Scope: in some domains
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“He made some of his usual overpromises (500,000 humanoid robots in three years, which seems to very unlikely)”
Our reading: Musk's promise of 500,000 humanoid robots in three years seems very unlikely to be fulfilled.
No horizon
Qualifier: seems
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Forecast
“I won’t be at all surprised if don’t even see anything worthy of the GPT-5 name”
Our reading: It is quite possible that no model worthy of the GPT-5 name will appear in 2025.
No horizon
Assessment: Can’t be checkedSaid
Recommendation or value judgment
“Gary Marcus wishes the media would hold those who make unrealistic promises to account.”
Our reading: The media should hold those who make unrealistic AI promises to account.
No horizon
Held from this post (3)
These records did not pass every check, so nothing about them is published. Held is not a finding.
- The two reviews reached different assessments. Our reading, not assessed: AGI will not be achieved in 2025.
- The record does not meet the current rules. Our reading, not assessed: GPT-5, when it arrives, will not meet the AGI criteria Marcus has previously laid out.
- The two reviews read the claim differently